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wetter threda Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 16:39:44 [Preview] No. 9926
anyone else following weather and shit?

current proceedings: Irma is now cat 5, expected to trail just north of Greater Antilles and south of Florida. Jose following close by in similar track. hoping for a nice show and responsible damage control in affected parts Haiti get your shit together

websites for tracking tropical cyclones:
<but I don't understand technical terms and shit, I need something for keins

general websites:
<for keins

Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 16:42:30 [Preview] No. 9928 del
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma
is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to
remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple
of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 931 mb (27.50 inches).

Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 17:00:18 [Preview] No. 9929 del
I hope they send them solar powered audiobibles again.

Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 19:18:04 [Preview] No. 9931 del
(73.34 KB 1200x900 DI-p3ckVoAEfaTm.jpg)
inside the eye photo from NOAA's hurricane hunters

Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 19:41:36 [Preview] No. 9932 del
Additional note: September is unofficial start of Mediterranean basin cyclone season. No meteorological agency specifically monitors development of those storms; however there are several amateur stormchasers who do so, occasionally meteorologists also write reports after analysing measured data. Occasionally individual storms develop structure and intensity that makes them comparable to small hurricanes; however it is not a common occurrence due to 1) strong baroclinic effects which favour development of frontal rather than radial systems 2) lower sea surface temperatures allowing explosive warm-core cyclogenesis only in cases of cold air intrusions into upper troposphere (explaining the peak season September-December). I've closely followed development of two such systems over the last years; first made landfall on Sicily (and Malta) in early November 2014, second made landfall on Sardinia and Corsica in early October 2015.

Sites that will likely report are:
AccuWeather may report as systems develop as well.
and I intend to closely monitor the area as well. So far the summer has been favourable when it comes to warming up the sea; we'll see how the conditions develops further.

Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 22:46:23 [Preview] No. 9933 del
>Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h)
>The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches).
Seems to be going for high score. fug

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 07:08:02 [Preview] No. 9934 del

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 08:30:06 [Preview] No. 9935 del

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 09:18:50 [Preview] No. 9936 del
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft



Considering she keeps going over sea with temperatures 30°C or higher, she could stay cat 5 all the way to Florida.

St. Martin (the island she's about to pass) reports sustained winds 120kt gusts to 140kt.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 10:08:54 [Preview] No. 9937 del
Where will the storm end? Will it go to washington?

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 13:43:44 [Preview] No. 9938 del
I live in Florida near the south-east coast. If I take pictures of shit outside, should I post it in this thread, or make my own thread? Hurricane won't hit until around Saturday or something.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 15:29:49 [Preview] No. 9939 del
Dude why are you not evacuating?

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:26:27 [Preview] No. 9940 del
Wherever you want to post those pictures. It fits in here but if you find opening a new thread more proper just do that. We're interested in whatever you can post.

Why tho?

At Storm's End.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:40:43 [Preview] No. 9944 del
bost pics

I should probably locate livestreams a lot of folks are covering this but it's hard to find quality cams

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:47:04 [Preview] No. 9945 del
I think it's too early to say. Models agree that it will reach southern tip of Florida but the path from there on is unclear. In any case there's a cold front over eastern US right now; this means barotropic discontinuity in the atmosphere; this means wind direction varies wildly on both sides of the front and with height so when Irma hits the front it will start ripping her apart, lowering intensity no matter where she gets deflected.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:50:08 [Preview] No. 9948 del
Personally I'd say Georgia and South Carolina could get hit as well; but if she gets deflected further eastwards it's not very likely to slam on coast further north; she should instead merge into the front and dissipate over the Atlantic.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:52:09 [Preview] No. 9949 del
pls stay safe

Also site I sometimes check on storms

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 18:20:42 [Preview] No. 9955 del
You do not evacuate unless you live close to the beach really. The barrier islands that will take most of that damage.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 19:10:52 [Preview] No. 9958 del
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near
latitude 18.5 North, longitude 64.7 West. Irma is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will continue to move
over portions of the Virgin Islands during the next couple of
hours, pass near or just north of Puerto Rico this afternoon or
tonight, pass near or just north of the coast of the Dominican
Republic Thursday, and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern
Bahamas late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
An unofficial observation on Buck Island in the U.S. Virgin Islands
has recently reported sutained winds of 106 mph (171 km/h) with a
gust to 131 mph (211 km/h).

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance
datat is 920 mb (27.17 inches).

based on data I'd say she reached her peak. Still, keeping those stats for a whole day and possibly for one more is pretty big.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 20:05:33 [Preview] No. 9973 del
It's the aftermath that is the biggest danger, look at the most recent one harvey

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 20:41:06 [Preview] No. 10003 del
(256.01 KB 700x425 tesis_20170906.png)
(8.92 KB 751x471 flares.png)
Thread about all types of weather, right?

So, about cosmic weather. We experience biggest solar flare in 12 years, it slowly happens for few days and grows. It is pretty powerful, so even problems with electronic devices are expected.

Strange thing that it happened at the minimum peak of solar cycle, that isn't common.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 20:54:31 [Preview] No. 10005 del
(25.79 KB 620x349 Sunspots on 5 Sep.jpg)
Well that's one big sunspot. (2673 is the one that caused the flare) But otherwise, the Sun is pretty clear.
Also, it needs to be taken in a context – Sun has been really quiet recently and flares like this seem to be more common in historical records.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:19:56 [Preview] No. 10008 del
>Sun has been really quiet recently and flares like this seem to be more common in historical records.

Sources in internet say that only 5 flares were more powerful for last 20 years. So, it is rather uncommon thing, although not exceptional.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:26:29 [Preview] No. 10010 del
Yep but I'm stating that last two cycles were weak comparable to last two centuries, based on aurora sightings and sunspot counts.
There was a big one at the peak of current cycle iirc, but on the other side so it missed Earth.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:29:10 [Preview] No. 10011 del
In any case I'm waiting for NASA for aurora forecasts. For tonight geomagnetic storm watch is issued for the previous smaller flare 2 days ago. I don't know how to predict this activity but I know it's not just big eruption = big activity 2 days later, dispersal and other things are involved as well.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:34:45 [Preview] No. 10012 del
We have Sun lab in FIAN, it looks like pretty serious organisation. Their English page is partially dead though, but they have graphs and predictions.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:56:16 [Preview] No. 10013 del
recording of beach cam getting rekt.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=dA5qYrboTUE [Embed]

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 22:15:00 [Preview] No. 10014 del
Remembered one could get nice views from the ISS stream when it passes over.
For current location of the ISS:
Official livestream:

recording from Sep 5

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 23:55:08 [Preview] No. 10019 del
(67.03 KB 400x282 we hungry dawg.jpg)
We finna get paid.

Bernd 09/07/2017 (Thu) 19:21:24 [Preview] No. 10060 del

Bernd 09/07/2017 (Thu) 19:24:42 [Preview] No. 10062 del
(27.46 KB 280x412 1424284421001.jpg)
Wtf? Why the fuck fucks it up the link?

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 06:19:15 [Preview] No. 10074 del
lel I think the code for this website is dudded

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 06:19:31 [Preview] No. 10075 del
might make sense to file a bug report

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 14:31:55 [Preview] No. 10077 del
(1.10 KB 100x100 littelbernd.gif)
Put it in a txt

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 15:02:52 [Preview] No. 10078 del
(1.29 MB 1340x780 windmap.png)
Doesn't matter. It's just the hurricane's windmap area. You can adjust the globe here >>10060 into position.

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 16:53:34 [Preview] No. 10079 del
(12.15 KB 640x480 planetary-k-index.gif)
(52.67 KB 940x562 G4_Alert.jpg)
Update for space weather, there should be decent activity today but I don't see it exceptionally far south on the forecast.
Animation is on http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 17:00:17 [Preview] No. 10080 del
>that clear cold front over the Atlantic
Let's see how far Irma gets. Usually when hurricanes hit a front they're ripped apart and absorbed into the front. She might be able to curve over Florida, but I'd say she's not going any further. The same front should also absorb Jose.
If conditions are favourable the energy will not dissipate but will instead be absorbed into the front. Let's see how the front will show up on prognosis models for Europe once this happens.

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 20:31:06 [Preview] No. 10085 del
It's gonna be pretty funny if all of this hulabaloo was for naught.

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:39:07 [Preview] No. 10087 del
(215.43 KB 1053x600 tccapture.gif)
Oh well. I think she's gonna smash Florida pretty hard, and that's it.

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:43:08 [Preview] No. 10088 del
Also, wtf. Jose is cat 4 now too?
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast tonight
through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will
pass close or just east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down,
could occur during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is
expected after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:44:21 [Preview] No. 10089 del
I think my state (Ohio) got hit by two different limbs of Harvey, and some of the projections had it heading straight for us. It's figuratively the worst. Making September all unseasonably cold and rainy.
I think Florida really is the anus of our country and God is filming an anal devastation porno.

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:48:26 [Preview] No. 10090 del
Yep, I haven't checked the entire development, but that squall line looks like it has munched up Harvey already.

Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 00:34:15 [Preview] No. 10092 del
People are pissed because they're not letting certain people into shelters in Florida. Basically, they're checking ID's and if you're a sex offender you're not allowed in, if you have warrant out for your arrest, they arrest you (makes sense), I saw something about unpaid parking tickets but I'm not sure what they would do in that situation. Seems like a small thing to make you face the wild for, also the courts are most definitely not open for you to go pay it. Would you just assault the officer to get some shelter in that case?

Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 07:14:09 [Preview] No. 10093 del
(1.31 MB 1109x830 windmap2.png)

Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 08:01:22 [Preview] No. 10094 del
>so many normies scared

Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 17:45:18 [Preview] No. 10096 del
(223.23 KB 1053x600 tccapture.gif)
it begins

Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 17:47:10 [Preview] No. 10098 del
(196.37 KB 900x665 two_atl_2d0.png)
>notices storm off coast of Africa
OwO what's this?

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 06:45:42 [Preview] No. 10130 del
(1.57 MB 1399x726 windmap3.png)
Will it miss Florida?

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 08:15:25 [Preview] No. 10144 del
>Will it miss Florida?

If it wouldn't, we will miss Florida.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 08:54:32 [Preview] No. 10150 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=OTlMLxyQmfI [Embed]

live stream of Irma.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 09:03:29 [Preview] No. 10153 del
(30.49 KB 386x368 islamorada-map_web.jpg)
If I heard the guy right he says he is here, Islamorada. But he just said the storm is kind of skirting them, they have power, street lights are running. Seems like if it had hit during high tide it would have been worse.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 11:43:03 [Preview] No. 10175 del
Watching this stream, went online 10 min. ago

https://youtube.com/watch?v=tQ2iMApF-0o [Embed]

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 13:32:20 [Preview] No. 10187 del
(233.69 KB 600x1032 florida.png)
The rain noise is cozy, but why is it only in the left channel?

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 16:17:31 [Preview] No. 10207 del
it's probably mono recorded and shitty software doesn't stream it through both channels

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 16:20:09 [Preview] No. 10208 del
oh btw, I'm looking at some longer range spaghetti models; Jose is going to interact with the cold front but won't be absorbed by it; this will cause it to make a loop and then move into indeterminate direction. Judging by sea surface temperatures direct hit on Washington DC or NYC is possible too.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:09:28 [Preview] No. 10224 del
(730.48 KB 836x508 windmap4.png)
It's really on them now.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:29:33 [Preview] No. 10230 del

LIVE Two Friends Roof Top Key West
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc [Embed]

Mallory Square Key West Florida
https://youtube.com/watch?v=OUhXfVNW-Jg [Embed]

LIVE Hurricane Irma Florida Keys Super Stream
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZPWhoLbbhkQ [Embed]

LIVE Southern Most Beach Resort Beach & Pier
https://youtube.com/watch?v=eNCwj35OwmIzz [Embed]

Southern most point live webcam
https://youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ [Embed]

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:31:44 [Preview] No. 10231 del

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:48:24 [Preview] No. 10232 del
Looting happening already

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:52:51 [Preview] No. 10233 del
The most destroying force of nature is man.
Come to khantube btw. There's the link in another thread.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:53:26 [Preview] No. 10234 del
Live cam Naples Florida
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZHvs1MdF04c [Embed]

boats being beached
https://youtube.com/watch?v=mz2r0MGBa04 [Embed]

Multiple cranes have collapsed in Miami.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:55:24 [Preview] No. 10235 del

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:56:55 [Preview] No. 10236 del
NBC2 stream

https://youtube.com/watch?v=_egSTyWb1gk [Embed]

wind speed up to 120 mph /200 km/h at the eye wall moving to Ft, Myers reported

If the wind doesn't get faster than that they can consider themselves happy.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:58:59 [Preview] No. 10237 del
We're following exactly that on KhanTube. Our Slovenbernd has a channel there.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 19:12:37 [Preview] No. 10238 del
(9.83 MB 640x360 152639.mp4)
exceedingly rare footage of cyclone eye passing island of Linosa, Strait of Sicily

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 19:18:33 [Preview] No. 10239 del
(388.13 KB 1544x1024 zorb.jpg)
Use picrel, problems werent.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:11:55 [Preview] No. 10244 del
Now Marco Island. Naples soon.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:42:48 [Preview] No. 10246 del
(301.19 KB 1000x800 675.jpg)
Those looters all got arrested

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:49:02 [Preview] No. 10247 del
God job, coppers.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:56:13 [Preview] No. 10249 del
(62.38 KB 940x562 Slide1_36.JPG)
space weather: there was another big solar eruption, on the side of the disc viewed from Earth

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:56:31 [Preview] No. 10250 del
(70.01 KB 640x480 14876837_G.jpg)
(64.43 KB 640x360 14876836_G.jpg)
(69.61 KB 960x720 14876858_G.jpg)
(46.65 KB 640x480 14876880_G.jpg)
>Marco Island

Everything went better than expected

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:04:50 [Preview] No. 10253 del
That's not much. We have similar damage just from normal storms every year few times. And these parts are fairly calm.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:10:51 [Preview] No. 10256 del
(1.97 MB 320x180 1425678492161.gif)
it's like there is justice on this world after all

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:15:23 [Preview] No. 10257 del
but could you provide proofs?

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:23:35 [Preview] No. 10259 del
sample meteorological readings from when a (small) tropical storm passes straight over

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 22:34:42 [Preview] No. 10264 del
Yep. Just normal wind damage. The poles for electricity cables are also still standing. But now after the eye of the hurricane has passed the backside of the circulating storm will press the water inwards, so floods may still happen.

Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 04:53:47 [Preview] No. 10271 del
Last night in Naples happened. They reported about 15-30 cm of water on some avenue or such.

Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 05:11:21 [Preview] No. 10273 del
Cuba had it worse of course. The hurricane lost much power until it reached Florida.

Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 06:40:37 [Preview] No. 10274 del
>15-30 cm of water

Ah , that's nothing.

>Cuba had it worse

Yes, but I think overall Irma did less damage than feared before.

Only really hard hit was on that French-Dutch island where about 70% of all structures were damaged.

Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 12:09:11 [Preview] No. 10277 del
ok time for jose next

Bernd 09/17/2017 (Sun) 17:46:02 [Preview] No. 10505 del
Hurricane updates:

Jose is still spinning out and it doesn't look like he'll make landfall anywhere, though trajectory leads him pretty close to NY.

Maria is gaining strength rapidly, expected to take a slightly more southern path through the Lesser Antilles, and then hit Puerto Rico or Hispaniola.

Mediterranean updates:
due to recent weather development the western Mediterranean basin has cooled down, and it's unlikely to develop any interesting storms this season. It's still possible in the basin between Sicily and Tripolitania, I'd say.

Bernd 09/18/2017 (Mon) 05:11:42 [Preview] No. 10510 del
>the western Mediterranean basin has cooled down, and it's unlikely to develop any interesting storms this season.
Disappointing. Some people will have it easier with their illegal immigration.

Bernd 09/18/2017 (Mon) 20:29:47 [Preview] No. 10532 del
(195.77 KB 1053x600 tccapture.gif)
Maria close to cat 4 strength near Martinique

Bernd 09/18/2017 (Mon) 20:39:23 [Preview] No. 10533 del
Jesus F. Christ, looking at forecast paths it's possible we'll see Jose and Maria merging in the Atlantic.

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 05:11:22 [Preview] No. 10537 del
Lucky Pirates! Gold has no Hurricanes. The Lesser Antilles with all four nations nesting there is a good place in the beginning to pick up some crew, ships and loot.

Jesus will be the name after their merging?

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 06:59:38 [Preview] No. 10541 del
(7.03 MB 1120x480 rb-animated.gif)
that went straight over dominica

prepare for the rapture lads

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 17:32:36 [Preview] No. 10549 del
>Lucky Pirates! Gold has no Hurricanes.

At least it had strong wind that could stop your ship or even move it to shoal

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 17:45:32 [Preview] No. 10551 del
Zigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzag. From west to east.

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 18:30:33 [Preview] No. 10552 del
What happens when two hurricanes merge? The new one will be stronger? Or just the one in higher category absorbs the lower one? Or the slower slows the faster down?

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 19:46:14 [Preview] No. 10554 del
Intensity of tropical cyclones comes from surface properties, so the merger will result in a storm that is bigger at first but no more intense and it will dissipate into normal size. Most examples of historical mergers happened in late phases so there's not much sample. But it has already happened twice this season on the Pacific; Noru ate Kulap and explosively intensified afterwards, and Nesat and Haitang merged over land in western Pacific; and in eastern Pacific there was also interaction of Hilary with Irwin. Also, they orbit each other for a while, often the orbits aren't bound so they don't merge and just pass each other. But that also means you can get pretty unusual trajectories.

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 23:29:02 [Preview] No. 10557 del
Puerto Rico cat 5 landfall expected in about 16 hours


Bernd 09/20/2017 (Wed) 05:33:18 [Preview] No. 10563 del
(1.88 MB 1762x1023 tango.png)
Let me reply with a picrel.

Other kind of landfall habbened in Mexico I think yesterday or so.

Bernd 09/21/2017 (Thu) 09:55:30 [Preview] No. 10584 del
nice pics

Bernd 09/21/2017 (Thu) 15:51:27 [Preview] No. 10586 del
Imagine jumping into it with a parachute.

Bernd 09/22/2017 (Fri) 14:08:53 [Preview] No. 10601 del
a little something I didn't notice before, after Irma and Jose Barbuda is now unpopulated

Bernd 09/22/2017 (Fri) 16:56:01 [Preview] No. 10604 del
No wonder. Could anyone hold up there in some hole or something?

Bernd 09/22/2017 (Fri) 17:01:35 [Preview] No. 10605 del

Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 01:05:32 [Preview] No. 10635 del
(52.96 KB 1019x712 98fndfd.gif)
Keep an eye on the Great Lakes. Situation is similar to 1996 when a passing cold front exploded into a cyclone over the lakes.
Pic related is 48 hour prognosis. From there on, it's showtime.

Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 01:09:37 [Preview] No. 10636 del
Tho, comparing surface temperatures, it's a bit colder still.

Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 06:22:20 [Preview] No. 10638 del
20+ water temp. Meanwhile I'm sitting here in 15.

Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 06:36:44 [Preview] No. 10639 del
Erm. 15 air temp.

Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 08:31:00 [Preview] No. 10647 del
oirish expat said it was 29 in the evening yesterday-

Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 08:31:27 [Preview] No. 10648 del
in chicongo, fyi

Bernd 10/04/2017 (Wed) 20:50:55 [Preview] No. 10896 del
Currently in Mediterranean basin: storm between Tunisia and Sicily, it's a persistent convective feature, but there's not enough energy for it to evolve and become self-organised.

I kinda wish I could create a larger file for full development but even making this gif took quite some time

Bernd 10/04/2017 (Wed) 21:15:41 [Preview] No. 10900 del
(490.23 KB 845x615 sat24.com.webm)

Bernd 10/05/2017 (Thu) 05:41:26 [Preview] No. 10905 del
We'll get some sprinkling from that shit coming from the NW. We usually does. Now everything is grey. I could go on with a bit more sunny weather.

Bernd 10/10/2017 (Tue) 23:16:53 [Preview] No. 11088 del
Ophelia is going for Portugal, joj

Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 18:08:54 [Preview] No. 11094 del
Ophelia looks really nice, but it would seem she's still short of cat 1 intensity

Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 18:32:19 [Preview] No. 11095 del
Meanwhile, stable and warm weather over continental Europe. The last days of summer, almost.

Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 18:55:05 [Preview] No. 11097 del
We call that the "summer of crones".

Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 19:12:45 [Preview] No. 11098 del
sames, babje polětje

Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 19:47:45 [Preview] No. 11099 del
Yeah, it is "бабье лето" (babje leto).

Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 20:41:21 [Preview] No. 11101 del

Intensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly.  Dvorak
estimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much
higher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind
estimates. Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak
classifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but
since that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery.
However, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the
convective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so
it wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly.
In an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has
been increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it
should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is
higher than normal.

The hurricane is moving slowly toward the east and the initial
motion estimate is 090/3 kt. The hurricane is embedded within weak
steering flow, and only a slow northeastward drift is expected for
the next 24 h. After that time, an approaching deep-layer trough
should force Ophelia to accelerate toward the northeast. All of the
deterministic models are in fairly good agreement on the speed and
track of Ophelia, however the various model ensembles suggest that
the uncertainty is much higher, especially regarding the forward
speed of Ophelia beyond 48 h. The official track forecast favors
the deterministic model solutions, in part to maintain continuity
with the previous advisory. The track forecast is therefore close
to the multi-model consensus, but much faster than the various
ensemble mean aids.

Since it isn't clear exactly how strong Ophelia is, the intensity
forecast is low confidence. All of the intensity guidance indicates
that strengthening is likely for the next 24 to 36 hours, however
the near stationary motion of the hurricane could induce some
upwelling and limit the extent to which the hurricane may
strengthen. Around 72 hours, the shear should begin to increase
substantially as Ophelia begins to interact with the approaching
trough, and extratropical transition will likely begin, accompanied
by a broadening of the wind field and a gradual decrease of the
maximum winds. The global models indicate that this process will
complete by 96 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher
than the previous forecast, but lies on the lower end of the
intensity guidance for the first 72 h. It is near the consensus
aids thereafter.

Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 15:44:01 [Preview] No. 11127 del
So, we'll see tomorrow?

Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 16:02:56 [Preview] No. 11128 del
t. babie lato

I think I'm gonna get hit by that

Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 16:32:56 [Preview] No. 11129 del
Forecast track keeps getting moved further west
but right now it seems that Ophelia will hit Ireland as a hurricane, or at least at hurricane force (if convection is killed by then already – just a technical thing, there's barely any difference in how it would look like from the ground). But hurricane wind speeds are nothing extraordinary for British isles, winter storms of similar intensity occur yearly – it's just a completely different type of a storm.

Ophelia's satellite presentation consists of a distinct eye in
infrared imagery surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of -50C to -70C.
The initial intensity of 80 kt is based on a blend of the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, which range from 77 to
95 kt. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 48
hours, as Ophelia will remain over SSTs of 25-26C and in a low
to moderate shear environment. After that time, the cyclone should
begin extratropical transition as it interacts with a potent
mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the north Atlantic. This
baroclinic interaction should maintain Ophelia at hurricane
intensity through 96 hours, with slow weakening expected after that
time as the extratropical cyclone occludes.

Ophelia has moved little since the last advisory, with the cyclone
currently situated south of the mid-latitude westerlies. The
initial motion estimate is a slow north-northeastward drift at
around 2 kt. A steadier northeastward motion should begin by 12 h
when the aforementioned upper-level trough begins to exert influence
on Ophelia's motion. An east-northeastward acceleration is expected
at 24 through 48 h, followed by a turn back to the northeast and
north-northeast at days 3 through 5 as Ophelia interacts with the
southern portion of the trough. Through the first 48 hours, the new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope. Later in the forecast period,
there remains a fair bit of east/west spread in the track of Ophelia
near Ireland and the United Kingdom, which isn't usual at these time
ranges. The NHC forecast at these times is similar to the previous
one and lies on the right side of the deterministic guidance
envelope but is near the middle of the ECMWF, UKMET and GEFS
ensemble members. Regardless of the exact track, post-tropical
Ophelia is likely to bring some impacts to Ireland and the United
Kingdom as a powerful extratropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days.

While the track guidance keeps the center of Ophelia east of the
Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the
eastern Azores later today or tonight because of the expected
increase in the size of the tropical-storm-force winds in the
northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.


1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
issued by the Met Office.


INIT 12/1500Z 30.5N 35.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 30.9N 34.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 31.6N 33.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 32.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 34.4N 27.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 40.9N 18.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 51.0N 12.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/1200Z 60.5N 5.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 16:33:22 [Preview] No. 11130 del
How come?

Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 16:34:52 [Preview] No. 11131 del
commentary on semantic shift:
in Slovene it's polětje because lěto ended up meaning "year" instead, similar development to how неделя means "week" and not "Sunday" in Russian.

Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 21:45:55 [Preview] No. 11142 del
in polish, "lato" is "summer" but "lata" is "years", and singular "year" is "rok"
who the hell came up with that shit

Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 21:59:15 [Preview] No. 11143 del
>"lato" is "summer" but "lata" is "years"

Russian has old-style/poetic form "leta" for "years", although it isn't used much.

Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 22:02:10 [Preview] No. 11144 del
ok I checked weather forecast again, it won't be going through poland directly, but we will feel the effects of this hurricane anyway

Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 17:03:19 [Preview] No. 11156 del
Any updates?
Also what kind of impact can be expected on the continent? Liek he >>11144 said.

Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 17:07:33 [Preview] No. 11157 del
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Okay here we go.

Ophelia apparently ate some dry air, but she's going at cat 2. Wind intensity forecast and estimates are now higher – perhaps they were underestimated before. It definitely looks like a hurricane-force landfall on Ireland, early Monday. Meanwhile tomorrow the storm will pass the Azores.

The eye of Ophelia has become a bit more apparent in visible and
infrared imagery during the past couple of hours, but the cloud tops
around the eye have also warmed recently. The initial intensity is
set to 85 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective
Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers. The hurricane will remain in an
environment of marginal SSTs and light to moderate shear for the
next day or so, which suggests little change in intensity during
that time. By 36 hours, the shear will begin to increase as a
powerful upper-level trough approaches from the west, but Ophelia
should remain at hurricane force during extratropical transition as
it undergoes a favorable interaction with the aforementioned trough
and takes on a warm seclusion structure. The transition process
is expected to be complete by 72 hours, and post-tropical Ophelia
should gradually weaken as the cyclone occludes beneath the upper
trough. The low-level circulation of Ophelia is expected to
dissipate over Scandinavia by day 5.

The initial motion estimate is 060/10. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Ophelia should move
east-northeastward ahead of the approaching upper-level trough with
a steady increase in forward speed through the next 24 hours. The
hurricane should turn northeastward by 48 hours followed by a
north-northeastward motion at days 3 and 4. The track model guidance
is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are some
differences in forward speed beyond 48 hours. The new NHC track
is similar to the previous one and lies between the latest TVCA
multi-model consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid through
the forecast period. On this track, the center of Ophelia is
expected to move southeast of the Azores during the next 36 hours
and then move near or over Ireland and the western part of the UK in
3 to 4 days. Given the expected increase in the size of Ophelia's
wind field during extratropical transition, impacts from strong
winds and rain are becoming increasingly likely over portions of the
British Isles regardless of the exact track of the center.

While the NHC track continues to keep the center of Ophelia south
and east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible
throughout the Azores beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due
to an approaching cold front. Any deviation to the left of the
forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests
in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather
Forecast and Watch Center.

A 1242 UTC ASCAT-B pass was helpful in analyzing the 34-kt wind
radii around Ophelia.


1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are becoming more likely, along with dangerous marine
conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location
of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should
refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United
Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


INIT 13/1500Z 31.8N 32.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 32.6N 30.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 34.1N 27.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 36.5N 22.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 40.7N 17.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 51.0N 11.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/1200Z 60.0N 4.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 17:31:44 [Preview] No. 11158 del
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Analysis from Free University of Berlin's Institute of Meteorology. Ophelia will soon start interacting with that big cold front dragging from the cold-core low designated as Benno; this will steer Ophelia along the front, while allowing for smooth transition from a warm-core system into a cold-core system without dissipation. Ophelia will thus merge into the mid-latitude system of cold-core systems generated as eddies by the jet stream; strengthening whichever cyclone it merges into in the process.

The model Arpege (gifs generated by Meteociel) forecasts landfall at about 110 km/h and central pressure below 955 mbar. Hurricane force is above 120 km/h. But right before approaching Ireland wind intensity is even above the upper end of the scale used (140 km/h) so if Ophelia moves a bit faster this could count as a hurricane landfall.

Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 19:24:37 [Preview] No. 11159 del
So they don't have much to say about how will it change the weather on the continent itself for now.

Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 19:33:37 [Preview] No. 11160 del
Tropical storms are relatively small systems. Jet stream has a much greater effect on weather in Europe.

There's two things that it will certainly cause: 1) more saharan wind blown towards Europe, 2) some rain bands reaching Portugal ending drought. Otherwise I don't think it will affect weather development much.

Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 19:45:09 [Preview] No. 11162 del
Has anything to do with this nice warm weather we have here?
I see people with puffed coats and scarf while I'm sweating in a t-shirt kek.

Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 19:49:09 [Preview] No. 11163 del
Nod really; that's a jet stream feature, see >>11095. But this certainly helps that Ophelia can get pulled in like this.

Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 23:03:39 [Preview] No. 11165 del
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Ophelia's eye has become better defined over the past 6 hours.
Although cloud tops near the inner core of the hurricane are warmer
than 24 hours ago, a ring of -50 deg C or colder cloud tops still
surrounds the eye. Dvorak current intensity estimates have not
changed substantially, and a blend of objective and subjective
classifications still supports an initial intensity of 85 kt.

Little change in strength is expected while Ophelia remains a
hurricane, since the relatively cool SSTs along the hurricane's path
will likely be offset by low shear and cold upper-level temperatures
for the next 36 h. Extratropical transition will likely begin
shortly after that time, as Ophelia begins to interact with a large
upper-level trough approaching from the west. The dynamical
guidance suggests that Ophelia will deepen in response to the
trough, and although the forecast does not explicitly show it, I can
not rule out that Ophelia will briefly intensify as it undergoes
extratropical transition. By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to
occlude and begin weakening, though the expansion of the wind field
will result in impacts over portions of the British Isles,
regardless of its exact location or strength. By 96 hours,
continued weakening and interaction with land will likely cause the
surface circulation to become ill-defined, and dissipation is
expected shortly thereafter.

Ophelia is beginning to accelerate toward the east-northeast and the
initial motion estimate is 060/11 kt. Very little change has been
made to the official track forecast. Ophelia is still expected to
continue picking up speed on an east-northeast heading while passing
south of the Azores during the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 hours,
interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough will cause
Ophelia to turn toward the northeast and approach Ireland and the
western UK in about 72 h. The track guidance is tightly clustered,
especially through 72 h, and the new NHC track forecast is close to
the various multi-model consensus aids. Although the center of
Ophelia is not expected to reach Ireland or the UK until about day
3, wind and rain effects will arrive well in advance of the cyclone
center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from
their local meteorological service for more information on local

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due to an approaching cold
front. Any deviation to the left of Ophelia's forecast track could
bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests in the Azores should
refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch


1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.


INIT 13/2100Z 32.3N 31.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 33.4N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 35.2N 25.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 38.2N 20.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 43.1N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 53.2N 10.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/1800Z 60.5N 2.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 23:18:44 [Preview] No. 11166 del
hurricanes named Ophelia have a habit of reaching Europe
>September 22, 2005 – Former Hurricane Ophelia moved across the Faroe Islands.[24]
>October 6, 2011 – The remnants of Hurricane Ophelia combined with a cold front to produce 105 km/h (65 mph) winds and snowfall in Scotland.[88]

Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 09:30:54 [Preview] No. 11180 del
Oh yeah. I forgot.

Why don't they just name it something else? Problem solved.

Looks good.

Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 09:34:07 [Preview] No. 11181 del
I thought they weren't supposed to repeat names for hurricanes tbh...is it different because it wasn't classified a hurricane when it made land fall?

Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 09:49:23 [Preview] No. 11182 del
>hurricanes are not given names, tropical storms are given names, and they retain their name if they develop into a hurricane.
>For each year a list of 21 names, each starting with a different letter of the alphabet, was developed and arranged in alphabetical order (names beginning with the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z were not used). The first tropical storm of the year was given the name beginning with the letter "A," the second with the letter "B" and so on through the alphabet. During even-numbered years, men's names were given to the odd-numbered storms and during odd-numbered years, women's names were given to odd-numbered storms (see the table for recent name lists).
>The only change that is made to the list of Atlantic hurricane names is the occasional retirement of a name. This is done when a hurricane causes so much death and destruction that reuse of the same name would be insensitive to the people who suffered losses.

Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 16:15:52 [Preview] No. 11185 del
They use the same list every 6 years and only replace names if a hurricane causes a shoah.

Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 16:19:26 [Preview] No. 11186 del
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Passing Azores on the east right now. Transition to extratropical is still expected to be smooth and not cause dissipation.

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.


1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 16:24:18 [Preview] No. 11187 del
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Can't seem to get latest Arpege products? Oh well. Ophelia is already interacting with the cold front to the north, this will extend the wind bands to the southeast (the cold front will spin around the hurricane), going towards Portugal. The upper level trough that's generating the cold front is why there'll be a smooth transition – Ophelia will start pumping energy from there.

At least the kr*uts have their daily analysis done.

Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 16:26:34 [Preview] No. 11188 del
Also I just noticed Ophelia is now confirmed cat 3. Ebin.


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 16:28:18 [Preview] No. 11189 del
OK it seems Arpege run is being done right now. Will export products when finished.

Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 17:01:23 [Preview] No. 11190 del
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Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 17:03:05 [Preview] No. 11191 del
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wtf where's pressure field?

Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 17:10:25 [Preview] No. 11192 del

Next few days will be exxxciting.

Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 19:57:54 [Preview] No. 11195 del
nicely connected to that front

Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 07:27:27 [Preview] No. 11196 del
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Ophelia remains an impressive hurricane in infrared satellite
imagery. The hurricane continues to exhibit a large well-defined
eye within a ring of cold cloud tops. However, the overall cloud
pattern has started to elongate and there has been a slight erosion
of the area of cloud tops over the west and southwest portions of
the circulation as dry air and a frontal boundary encroaches on the
hurricane. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies
continue to support an intensity of 100 kt. The aforementioned
changes in the cloud pattern and an expansion of the wind field as
noted by an earlier ASCAT overpass suggest that extratropical
transition has begun. The wind field is expect to significantly
expand over the next 12 to 24 hours, which is likely to lead to a
gradual decrease in the maximum winds. Ophelia is forecast to
complete extratropical transition within 24 hours, but it is
expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday. The
system is forecast to occlude and interact with land, which
should cause a faster rate of weakening in 48 to 72 hours, with
dissipation expected shortly thereafter.

Ophelia is moving northeastward, or 055/24 kt ahead of a
mid-latitude trough moving over the northeastern Atlantic. The
hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward tonight, then
turn north-northeastward with an additional increase in forward
speed by late Sunday and Sunday night. After the system occludes in
a couple of days, it should begin to slow down. The track guidance
is in good agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is very
close to the previous advisory.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK until Monday, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of
the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult
products from their local meteorological service for more
information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
tonight behind a cold front that has moved through the islands in
the wake of Ophelia. Interests in the Azores should refer to
products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.


1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


INIT 15/0300Z 37.3N 21.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 40.1N 17.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 45.7N 13.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 16/1200Z 51.4N 10.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0000Z 60.0N 2.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 07:32:41 [Preview] No. 11197 del
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Arpege model forecast

Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 17:21:53 [Preview] No. 11206 del
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oh well, time for update

Ophelia is slowly getting torn apart but this doesn't mean she's losing power yet. The wind field is spreading from the narrow eyewall, while the system is kept strong by the trough in upper troposphere.

Portugal gon' get some rain finally. Spain can go fuck herself.

After displaying a distinct eye overnight, recent satellite imagery
indicate that the cloud pattern of Ophelia has begun to deteriorate
and the eye is no longer apparent. The deep convection is also
weakening fast and consequently, Dvorak numbers have begun to
decrease while analysts are trying to lower them as much as the
technique allows. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 80
kt. Given the cold waters of about 20 deg C, and the strong shear,
Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical
cyclone later today.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the
north-northeast or 025 degrees at 33 kt, well embedded within the
fast flow ahead of a large trough. This pattern is expected to
persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated before
dissipation. Guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement
and most of the models bring a weakened post-tropical Ophelia to the
southern coast of Ireland Monday morning (AST or Miami time).
Thereafter, the cyclone will continue over northern Great Britain
until dissipation.

Strong winds and rains associated with Post-Tropical Ophelia will
arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.


1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.


INIT 15/1500Z 41.6N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 46.0N 13.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/1200Z 51.5N 9.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/0000Z 57.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1200Z 60.5N 1.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 17:24:14 [Preview] No. 11207 del
(5.58 MB 768x768 tempresult_kub6.gif)
(2.44 MB 768x768 tempresult_qzn5.gif)
Landfall around 13:00 tomorrow.

Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 17:28:38 [Preview] No. 11208 del
(210.96 KB 1024x727 Analyse_20171015.gif)
forgot kr*uts' analysis for last night

Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 17:44:00 [Preview] No. 11209 del
How very negligent of you.

Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 17:50:05 [Preview] No. 11210 del
>Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical
cyclone later today.
Sad! At least potatos are safe.

Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 18:48:31 [Preview] No. 11212 del

Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 20:29:03 [Preview] No. 11216 del
I thought grabbing all the alcohol is just a boring weekday activity on the Emerald Island.

Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 22:38:47 [Preview] No. 11224 del
Ophelia's cloud structure is declining rapidly, and microwave and
shortwave IR imagery indicate that the low-level and mid-level
centers are becoming separated. However, some deep convection is
still present near Ophelia's center, and an SSMIS pass from 1827 UTC
indicated that the hurricane still has an inner core that is
separated from a front to the north and west. The estimated maximum
winds have been decreased slightly to 75 kt given the overall decay
of the cloud structure. However, the cyclone's favorable position
relative to an upper-level jet streak is likely contributing to
deepening of the low as the wind field expands substantially. Only
a slight decrease in the maximum winds is therefore expected before
the post-tropical cyclone reaches Ireland. After that time,
interaction with land while the cyclone occludes should cause it to
weaken more rapidly. Around 48 h, the cyclone's circulation is
likely to become ill-defined and dissipate near the western coast of

Ophelia has continued to move toward the north-northeast, and the
initial motion estimate remains 025/33 kt. There has been no change
to the track forecast reasoning since Ophelia is already embedded
within the flow associated with a large mid-latitude trough. This
should keep Ophelia on a north-northeast heading as it passes over
Ireland and the UK on Monday. The dynamical guidance remains in
very good agreement on the track of Ophelia, and very little change
has been made to the track forecast.

Since Ophelia will be post-tropical as it approaches Ireland and the
UK, strong winds and rain will arrive over land areas sooner than
the center. For more information on local impacts, consult products
from local meteorological services in Ireland and the United Kingdom
for more information.


1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.


INIT 15/2100Z 44.6N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 49.2N 11.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/1800Z 54.3N 7.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Still considered a tropical system. But it looks more like a knot on a cold front than anything else. Current location: halfway between Galicia and Ireland. Models predict extratropical strengthening before landfall.

I will try to export a longer video from this source, including entire path within area of view, once it's over.

Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 06:51:41 [Preview] No. 11229 del
Almost there.

Within just the past six hours, the last bit of deep convection
near Ophelia's center has been sheared off well to the north, and
the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure.
Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an
attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a
cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal. The
powerful cyclone continues to produce hurricane-force winds, with
recent ASCAT data showing wind vectors as high as 70 kt to the east
of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains
75 kt to account for undersampling. The occluded low is forecast to
gradually fill and weaken during the next couple of days, and it is
likely to dissipate near the western coast of Norway by 48 hours.
Despite the expected weakening, the post-tropical cyclone is still
likely to bring hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, to
portions of western Ireland on Monday.

Ophelia has accelerated and retrograded slightly during the past
6-12 hours during the occlusion process, and the long-term motion
estimate is northward, or 010/38 kt. Now that occlusion is
complete, the post-tropical cyclone should resume a north-
northeastward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, within
the next 12 hours. That heading should continue for the ensuing day
or two, bringing the center of the cyclone near the western coast of
Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night.
The dynamical track models remain in good agreement on this
scenario, and the updated NHC forecast is not too different from
the previous one.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
now that Ophelia has become post-tropical. Local forecasts,
warnings, and other communications regarding the post-tropical
cyclone that are pertinent to Ireland and the United Kingdom will
continue to be available from Met Eireann and the UK Met Office.


1. Ophelia will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom Monday and Monday night. Strong winds and heavy rain are
likely in portions of these areas, along with dangerous marine
conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location
of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should
refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the
United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.


INIT 16/0300Z 49.2N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1200Z 61.9N 0.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 13:45:27 [Preview] No. 11235 del

>Post-tropical storm Ophelia makes landfall in southern Ireland early this afternoon – peak winds reported so far: 191 km/h at Fastnet lighthouse, the most southerly point in Ireland, likely associated with a sting jet. 155 km/h reported at Roches Point, S Ireland. 120-135 km/h reported so far at other locations along the S coast of Ireland.

Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 15:45:01 [Preview] No. 11238 del
You were a busy-bee I see. Just as Ophelia. Is she now at Ireland?

Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 16:03:03 [Preview] No. 11242 del
(46.90 KB 500x527 WEB_sat_ir_irl.jpg)
Yep. The core I think has reached Ulster by now. Satellite pic from Met Ireland.

Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 17:16:37 [Preview] No. 11254 del
It's like a second potato famine!

Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 17:32:13 [Preview] No. 11256 del

Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 20:47:19 [Preview] No. 11260 del
(150.28 KB 1024x1024 25W_161800sair.jpg)
(66.18 KB 1486x901 wp2517.gif)
Meanwhile Lan east of Philippines is expected to violently strengthen before moving northwards towards Japan.

Bernd 10/17/2017 (Tue) 05:22:04 [Preview] No. 11262 del
Nice photos. Once I saw similar when some fire got out of hand. Maybe burning the stubble-field went sideways I can't recall now.

Bernd 10/17/2017 (Tue) 15:56:23 [Preview] No. 11272 del
Oh well couldn't export the animation myself but here it is on youtube.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=BPgJfGGD2xM [Embed]
https://youtube.com/watch?v=7BG8PwYYFjc [Embed]

Bernd 10/17/2017 (Tue) 17:13:25 [Preview] No. 11274 del
Nice. The trail/skirt sweeping over west Iberia and Bretagne is very nicely observable.

Bernd 10/18/2017 (Wed) 13:34:39 [Preview] No. 11282 del
(235.40 KB 1024x1024 25W_180600sams.jpg)
(62.11 KB 1316x889 wp2517.gif)

Bernd 10/18/2017 (Wed) 16:34:37 [Preview] No. 11283 del
I thought it's LAN. Turned out it's Lan. What's 25W?

Bernd 10/18/2017 (Wed) 16:59:01 [Preview] No. 11284 del
Tropical waves are given a number-letter designation as soon as they're identified, before they start developing tropical storm characteristics. This designation is used for tracking and are given as a reference number if a wave develops into a cyclone.
The letter is for basin, W stands for Western Pacific. I don't know all the letters and how numbers work (I just know some basins only use high numbers over 90 for some reason).

Bernd 10/18/2017 (Wed) 17:49:09 [Preview] No. 11286 del
>I don't know all the letters and how numbers work
Probably some site has an explanation and table for that. Thanks.

Bernd 10/19/2017 (Thu) 17:57:46 [Preview] No. 11301 del
(127.41 KB 1024x1024 25W_191200sair.jpg)
(68.54 KB 1383x841 wp2517.gif)
Lan isn't strengthening and is still cat 1.
The track looks fun though.

Bernd 10/20/2017 (Fri) 11:22:48 [Preview] No. 11312 del
(242.92 KB 1024x1024 25W_200600sams.jpg)
(64.67 KB 1417x856 wp2517.gif)
(2.86 MB 1054x704 tcmovieFinal.gif)
(1.64 MB 1054x704 tcmovieFinal2.gif)
Holy fuck that's a huge eye.

Bernd 10/20/2017 (Fri) 15:54:39 [Preview] No. 11317 del
So basically all of Japan will get a refreshing shower.

Bernd 10/21/2017 (Sat) 13:47:57 [Preview] No. 11329 del
(280.64 KB 1024x1024 25W_210600sams.jpg)
(64.83 KB 1442x920 wp2517.gif)
Well it looks like it finally strengthened.

Bernd 10/21/2017 (Sat) 13:51:09 [Preview] No. 11330 del
[info]WDPN32 PGTW 210900

Bernd 10/21/2017 (Sat) 13:51:43 [Preview] No. 11331 del
well fuck I am retarded

Bernd 10/21/2017 (Sat) 14:47:23 [Preview] No. 11338 del
That's seriously a big eye. Bigger than some islands there.

>it looks like it finally strengthened
Now which is it?

>I am retarded
We all had our suspicions.

Bernd 10/21/2017 (Sat) 19:51:21 [Preview] No. 11356 del
Well. The question is how strong the system is once it moves over colder waters, out of the tropics. Weakening trend from cat 4 or from cat 2 means the difference between a decent storm and barely a shower by the time it reaches Japan.

Bernd 10/22/2017 (Sun) 08:08:33 [Preview] No. 11361 del
(265.57 KB 1024x1024 25W_220600sams.jpg)
(65.06 KB 1666x903 wp2517.gif)
WDPN32 PGTW 220300

Bernd 10/22/2017 (Sun) 08:10:20 [Preview] No. 11362 del
and a lil bit on the storm that passed Ireland yesterday

Bernd 10/22/2017 (Sun) 19:08:59 [Preview] No. 11379 del
(140.41 KB 1024x1024 25W_221200sair.jpg)
japs getting slapped

looking at some CAPE models (basically estimate of available convective energy in the atmosphere) Lan is no longer active for the last day - explaining the gradual weakening. But on the other hand, Lan is now riding a cold front extending down from Sea of Okhotsk. Subsequent strengthening into a windstorm is possible over Bering Sea, as happened with Nuri in November 2014, on a similar track - a cat 5 south of Japan, that turned into a huge 920 mbar cold core low over the Aleutians with hurricane-force winds (130 km/h), subsequently bringing a cold wave down Canada and US.

Bernd 10/22/2017 (Sun) 19:54:36 [Preview] No. 11387 del
(60.61 KB 1517x919 wp2517.gif)
(140.61 KB 1024x1024 25W_221800sair.jpg)
and I guess Lan's pretty much dead already. Sad!

Bernd 10/23/2017 (Mon) 06:33:28 [Preview] No. 11394 del
All day long.

Well, that's that. Happening anything interesting elsewhere?

Bernd 10/23/2017 (Mon) 18:50:54 [Preview] No. 11413 del
well Izola got flooded last night, and a university building burned down (presumably power got shorted because of water)
a storm cloud collapsed and dropped 87mm of rain almost instantly
(warning autoplay)

Bernd 10/23/2017 (Mon) 19:37:16 [Preview] No. 11414 del

Bernd 10/28/2017 (Sat) 09:06:14 [Preview] No. 11496 del
(243.09 KB 1024x1024 27W_280600sams.jpg)
(71.98 KB 1809x962 wp2717.gif)
Round 2 for Japan. This one is smaller but unlike Lan it isn't weakening yet, there's still enough energy to the east.

Bernd 10/29/2017 (Sun) 09:25:49 [Preview] No. 11535 del
Pretty fucking windy here rn.

Bernd 10/29/2017 (Sun) 09:41:32 [Preview] No. 11536 del
We have strong winds. Today or tomorrow we'll have gusts up to 140 km/h at some places.

Bernd 10/29/2017 (Sun) 16:48:22 [Preview] No. 11551 del
(217.82 KB 1024x727 Analyse_20171029.gif)
(108.21 KB 1280x910 Prognose_20171029.gif)
FU Berlin shows interesting structure.
First is last night analysis, second is prognosis for tonight.

Bernd 10/29/2017 (Sun) 17:40:08 [Preview] No. 11554 del
I took a stroll. It blows.

Bernd 11/02/2017 (Thu) 20:05:13 [Preview] No. 11639 del
(684.16 KB 1024x1024 28W_021800sair.jpg)
(46.05 KB 1254x745 wp2817.gif)

Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 13:52:13 [Preview] No. 11666 del
(1.10 MB 1024x1024 28W_030600sams.jpg)
pretty nice

Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 16:35:48 [Preview] No. 11669 del
When does such things count as hurricanes again?

Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 16:57:00 [Preview] No. 11672 del
When it's in US area (so, Northern Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific)
In Western Pacific it's called Typhoons (which is the same really) (大風, daai⁶ fung¹ in Cantonese), in other basins it's just a cyclone with appropriate intensifier.
Why? Because fuck you.

Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 17:17:24 [Preview] No. 11675 del
So when they start calling those typhoons?

Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 17:21:06 [Preview] No. 11676 del
At windspeeds of 64 knots (118 km/h). The cutoff is exactly the same as for hurricanes.

Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 17:26:22 [Preview] No. 11678 del
So today it reached this status.

Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 00:39:16 [Preview] No. 11686 del
(670.86 KB 1024x1024 28W_031800sair.jpg)
(38.00 KB 1218x695 wp2817.gif)

Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 08:53:29 [Preview] No. 11690 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RlvzRUM3n3s [Embed]

Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 08:59:03 [Preview] No. 11692 del
Why have they left their bikes outside just that?

Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 09:00:45 [Preview] No. 11694 del
Oh. 10:00. Now I know.

Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 10:08:17 [Preview] No. 11696 del
You mean it's a good time to invest in umbrellas, raincoats and rubber boots?

Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 11:56:05 [Preview] No. 11697 del
I think it's a good time to start moving stuff out of basement.

Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 14:20:52 [Preview] No. 11698 del
Well then it's a good time to invest in submersible pump.

Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 09:45:15 [Preview] No. 11708 del
(84.90 KB 900x646 BI_First.jpg)
(76.15 KB 900x561 BI_Second.jpg)
We have a really nice example of a Genoa low developing.

When a cold front hits the Alps from the west, the temperature and pressure field stack so that they're perpendicular to each other. The lower pressure behind the cold front leads an east-west pressure gradient, while there is also temperature gradient from the warmer sea to the colder inlands. The misalignment factor (mathematically a cross product between the gradients of pressure and density fields, with density inversely correlated to temperautre) is called baroclinity. Typically, the two fields are relatively well aligned. but next to mountain barriers and warm seas (a great example being exactly the Ligurian sea)

So, what happens then? Pressure fields mean that in the south, the air is rising because of high temperature, while in the west, there's cold air rushing into the cyclone from elsewhere. Summed together, this means that the cold air is rushing in counter-clockwise from northwest, while cold air is retreating and rising counter-clockwise on the eastern side. This initiates the rotation, as well as deepens the cyclone, as warm air rises. The cold air that rushes in develops a secondary cold front, while the warm air moving away develops an area of convection along a secondary warm front. A small eddy cyclone develops to the south of Provence, in Ligurian sea, which usually drops huge amounts of rain the the following day or two.

Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 09:52:41 [Preview] No. 11710 del
(146.26 KB 900x707 BI_Third.jpg)
3rd pic?

Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 09:53:26 [Preview] No. 11711 del
(299.13 KB 845x615 sat24.com.webm)
All right, so this was theory. Now let's look at the satellite imagery.

Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 10:05:18 [Preview] No. 11712 del
(77.83 KB 730x632 EC00_t+z500_012.png)
(81.41 KB 730x632 EC00_t+z500_036.png)
What is interesting with this situation however is that after the Genoa low develops, there's a high-level cold core (a piece of cold air in upper troposphere) that moves over it. This strengthens the system pressure-wise, as well as adding more vertical temperature gradient that makes convection stronger. In other words, the Genoa low can continue developing convectively, as a tropical storm would. A small cyclone is expected to develop and spin out. I guess one could call it a subtropical cyclone (a warm-core low developed out of a non-tropical disturbance), but on the other hand, this is just a secondary feature that develops under a high-level cold core.

Pictures: prognosis for temperature and height of 500mbar level – half of the atmospheric collumn (cold air = denser, so where there is cold air there will be troughs / depressions at that level to maintain much smaller pressure differences at ground level). First pic is about now (prognosis from midnight + 12 hours), second pic is in 24 hours. As you can see, the trough that is driving the cold front right now will break, and there will be an intrusion of cold air sitting above western Mediterranean.

Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 10:22:17 [Preview] No. 11713 del
(4.47 MB 768x768 tempresult_dow9.gif)
(11.56 MB 768x768 tempresult_epv6.gif)
(5.70 MB 768x768 tempresult_hvz8.gif)
(5.75 MB 768x768 tempresult_ngn4.gif)
So, what do arpege models say? That there should be a small active warm core cyclone detached from the cold and warm fronts developing under this big mass of cold air. Far from a hurricane, but it functions the same.

Gifs are wind field, pressure field, cloud cover and precipitation prognoses (not necessarily in this order).

Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 10:31:37 [Preview] No. 11714 del
>The lower pressure behind the cold front
this should be higher pressure, of course

Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 11:05:29 [Preview] No. 11715 del
>he cold air is rushing in counter-clockwise from northwest, while cold air is retreating and rising counter-clockwise on the eastern side
The second cold air which is retreating and rising shouldn't be warm air?

Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 22:37:09 [Preview] No. 11716 del

Bernd 11/06/2017 (Mon) 06:52:09 [Preview] No. 11719 del
(8.49 MB 768x768 tempresult_rtb4.gif)
(4.25 MB 768x768 tempresult_yhu6.gif)
(487.62 KB 845x615 sat24.com.webm)
Arpege no longer predicts an active warm core. Doesn't mean much for weather situation, but it means satellite imagery will be duller.

Bernd 11/06/2017 (Mon) 19:46:38 [Preview] No. 11741 del
(481.83 KB 845x615 sat24.com.webm)
Fug! I generated this but haven't posted as I was busy seriously discussing heraldry.

Bernd 11/06/2017 (Mon) 20:31:24 [Preview] No. 11744 del
Looks pretty good.

Bernd 11/07/2017 (Tue) 18:02:37 [Preview] No. 11757 del
(478.14 KB 845x615 sat24.com.webm)

Bernd 11/07/2017 (Tue) 18:03:10 [Preview] No. 11758 del
I forgot to make one in the morning so nightly development is missing

Bernd 11/07/2017 (Tue) 18:03:57 [Preview] No. 11759 del
Wow. That's kinda perfect.

Bernd 11/07/2017 (Tue) 18:17:38 [Preview] No. 11760 del
I'll try to make a longer vid of entire development, I just need to find out why my script can only retrieve imagery less than a day old.
Archives are here.

Bernd 11/12/2017 (Sun) 18:00:02 [Preview] No. 11853 del

I see another warm core in ECMWF forecast. Again an embedded feature on a high-level mass of cold air, but this one it seems pretty active.

A cold front passes the Alps but unlike last week it doesn't generate a strong persistent cold-core cyclone in Ligurian Sea. The low-pressure area moves further southeast, and once it passes Calabria and Sicily it starts strengthening on warm seas under a mass of very cold air. The system moves back into Tyrrhenian sea, and it generates a strong pressure gradient and wind field near the centre, and spiral rainbands. From there it moves southwards, and if it passes between Tunisia and Sicily it should start steering eastwards, across Malta and then towards Greece. The ECMWF forecast culminates in it dropping around 125mm rain over Crete, weakening in the process, but if it survives, the Eastern Mediterranean is even warmer and it might strengthen again towards Levant or Egypt.

https://www.windy.com/?2017-11-17-12,35.317,21.984,6,m (scroll time a bit)
ECMWF sea level pressure and baroclinic features in the atmosphere (denoting fronts) around the same time
ECMWF cold core in high level when it starts forming, but you can already see warm air rising in NE sector

Bernd 11/12/2017 (Sun) 18:01:52 [Preview] No. 11854 del
This is a system I will try to monitor closely.

Forecast winds aren't very strong though, far from anything hurricane-force.

Bernd 11/12/2017 (Sun) 23:41:02 [Preview] No. 11859 del
there will be snowfall and burja across the dinaric range tonight

Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 06:08:54 [Preview] No. 11861 del
Srsly? Won't remain anyway. Temperatures are still mild here. I see some frost here and there in the mornings tho for a weak now.

Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:07:51 [Preview] No. 11871 del
Yep, I got snow'd today. Chaos on the roads since most drivers haven't switched tyres yet, lmao. Even worse, trucks stayed on the road and blamed the road agencies for not taking them out of the traffic, then caused several road blocks when they slipped.
Every fucking time it happens; the met office informs that there will be snow but then everyone acts surprised when it happens.

Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:08:39 [Preview] No. 11872 del
Also, weather happenings sites are monitoring the forecast cyclone in the Mediterranean basin already too.

Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:24:04 [Preview] No. 11874 del
Here people do the sames. In January.

Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:27:05 [Preview] No. 11875 del
(94.33 KB 730x632 EC12_tfp+msl_042.png)
A commentary on why it can develop now while usually this is not possible.

Generally, in autumn when temperature differences on the Mediterranean are high enough for development, there are unfavourable conditions vertically through the atmosphere. There's too strong wind shear (driven by the general difference in temperatures north-south, which manifests as a jet stream slightly further north), which means that upper part of the system gets blown away instead of slowly developing like it can over tropical seas; and also, cold and warm fronts spreading from eddies on the polar front regularly pass the region, those atmospheric waves, despite being less intense than tropical and subtropical cyclones, are much larger and can easily just eat a developing cyclone whole (see satellite pic in >>11160 for some idea on scale difference).

But, there is also a high-pressure area developing over central Europe, this will bring stable weather there, blocking any subpolar weather system from affecting the situation on the Mediterranean. This stabilises the atmosphere over the Mediterranean allowing the cyclone to form and thrive, for as long as subpolar weather systems are blocked.

Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:31:27 [Preview] No. 11876 del
And the burja wind situation.

Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:42:08 [Preview] No. 11877 del
(6.82 MB 768x768 tempresult_dob6.gif)
(6.41 MB 768x768 tempresult_eht2.gif)
(13.43 MB 768x768 tempresult_gqf5.gif)
Arpege model prognosis, towards the end the system starts developing some proper structure around the core.

Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 19:11:34 [Preview] No. 11881 del
(4.57 MB 768x768 tempresult_wyb1.gif)
wait one gif is missing

Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 19:36:25 [Preview] No. 11882 del
(13.90 KB 170x200 hofi_geza.jpg)

"We prepared for the winter but haven't count on snow."

Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 20:32:26 [Preview] No. 11883 del
Where are the refugees boats when Poseidon strikes for once.

Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 20:37:52 [Preview] No. 11884 del
Wouldn't work, internationalist ships pick up already sinking """"refugee"""" boats right in front of Libyan coast
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wsaituMNS3E [Embed]

Bernd 11/14/2017 (Tue) 00:17:02 [Preview] No. 11886 del
(12.23 KB 780x380 gl_rCUMP_048.gif)
oh boy, it even shows up on NOAA's hurricane formation probability global map

Bernd 11/14/2017 (Tue) 08:43:31 [Preview] No. 11890 del
severe-weather.eu is giving tornado warning for Apulia today, models are unclear on how the system will develop (I think it goes slightly more westwards and smashes into Tunisia before developing shape on latest runs)

Bernd 11/14/2017 (Tue) 15:38:31 [Preview] No. 11892 del
Alert level decreased. In last model run the system only starts developing next to Calabria and is likely to go inland over Italy instead of strengthening towards Greece.

Bernd 11/14/2017 (Tue) 17:32:20 [Preview] No. 11895 del
>1st webm
Flying carpet.

It's God's way to express he's not impressed by the pope.

God's removing kebab.

Bernd 11/14/2017 (Tue) 21:42:26 [Preview] No. 11901 del
(5.57 MB 768x768 tempresult_ajt2.gif)
(3.65 MB 768x768 tempresult_ewv0.gif)
(13.40 MB 768x768 tempresult_itl2.gif)
(6.75 MB 768x768 tempresult_lei4.gif)
Oh shit our bad boy is back! And if this model is to be trusted, this is going to hurricane force.

Theme song Bernd 11/15/2017 (Wed) 06:26:23 [Preview] No. 11908 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=6yP1tcy9a10 [Embed]

Bernd 11/15/2017 (Wed) 16:07:11 [Preview] No. 11913 del
(95.80 KB 768x768 arpegeit-3-56-0.png)
Models predict landfall further north, and more northerly path also means colder seas and thus lower intensity.

Bernd 11/15/2017 (Wed) 17:06:22 [Preview] No. 11916 del
Holy Cheese. Good thing the whole Balkans is there shields us from such. At least they're good for something.

Bernd 11/15/2017 (Wed) 19:22:22 [Preview] No. 11919 del
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next run of the model

Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 07:47:06 [Preview] No. 11935 del
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new model products

Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 13:58:00 [Preview] No. 11936 del
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new model run

Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 17:03:50 [Preview] No. 11938 del
Grease should have payed her denbts.

Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 19:15:35 [Preview] No. 11942 del
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go home model you're drunk

that shit predicts 975 mbar at landfall and up to 167km/h sustained winds which would be cat 2

Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 19:16:34 [Preview] No. 11943 del
They say these type of cyclones are infrequent and they gave an example from 2014. How infrequent are they?

Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 19:17:52 [Preview] No. 11944 del
I followed the 2014 and 2015 case, and there was one previous in 2011. That's all in the last decade.

Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 23:23:10 [Preview] No. 11954 del
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latest run

Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 06:15:14 [Preview] No. 11955 del
It'll move SE, away from Italy and the Adria? How come?

Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 06:48:32 [Preview] No. 11957 del
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Jet stream eventually steers it away, before the sharp turn the system is pretty much (well it's sitting in a mass of cold air at high altitudes), but then upper atmosphere winds start pushing it southeastwards.

Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 06:53:55 [Preview] No. 11958 del
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The latest model prognosis again has a less sharp turn though.

Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 15:06:23 [Preview] No.11962 del
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Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 15:12:26 [Preview] No.11964 del
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model products
if they're to be believed Albania gets the worst

thank you Poseidon

Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 16:48:02 [Preview] No.11967 del
Why don't we have a Greek poster? 8ch had that rude fyrom dude at least. I bet he has a laff now.

Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 16:54:11 [Preview] No.11970 del
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Oh come on. I missed the 2016 cyclone?
I'm ashamed tbh.

Also it would seem it is happening every year lately.

Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 19:10:58 [Preview] No.11978 del
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I always post model products

Bernd 11/18/2017 (Sat) 00:33:02 [Preview] No.11983 del
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oh right I need to post new model products

Bernd 11/18/2017 (Sat) 00:36:42 [Preview] No.11984 del
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IR satellite imagery

Bernd 11/18/2017 (Sat) 17:58:29 [Preview] No.12002 del
moving towards epirus now
satellite pic from earlier

Is disease weather? Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 00:19:14 [Preview] No.12008 del
>HOSPITAL patients suffering from the plague are running away from hospitals because they are scared of needles and aren't used to hospital treatment.
>Malagasy people have also been told not to carry out their traditional burial tradition of Famidihana which involves digging up their dead relatives every seven years.
Does Europe accept refugees from Madagascar?

Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 00:20:01 [Preview] No.12009 del
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kinda blew apart today but got up for final pounding on greece

Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 10:41:08 [Preview] No.12012 del
Everything good has an end.

Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 11:20:31 [Preview] No.12013 del
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the end
I don't think there'll be a second surprise in the Aegean or the Euxine

Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 11:23:04 [Preview] No.12014 del
Madagascar isn't Muslim so I presume no.

Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 11:38:21 [Preview] No.12016 del
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Leonids are extremely active this year. At least 6 big bolide sightings, I think...
https://youtube.com/watch?v=iDhoHpSJEQE [Embed]

Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 12:42:42 [Preview] No.12017 del
Very nice.
I don't know if that was Leonid, but I seen one month ago, size, light and speed very similar to what was on vimeo link.

Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 13:23:27 [Preview] No.12018 del
It has been too overcast lately to see anything but such is life on my side of the mountain.
I think I saw one of these a couple of summers ago actually. It alternated between orange and green and either burnt up or went past the treeline when I was driving.
I hoped in my heart of hearts it was a UFO and I would be taken away by MiB.

Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 19:24:53 [Preview] No.12025 del
A satellite view of the eye. Note lack of a well defined eyewall (not enough windspeed so clouds still keep some structure)

Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 19:28:12 [Preview] No.12026 del
ground zero measurements from Aitoliko

Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 20:08:59 [Preview] No.12029 del
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long satellite vid

Bernd 11/20/2017 (Mon) 21:45:54 [Preview] No.12060 del
Strong Siberian high. Central Siberia went well below -40°C already.

What is a Siberian high? Because of short days, continental landmass far north doesn't receive much sunlight so it starts cooling down. Oceans keep temperature differences small, so coasts don't get extreme cooling in winter. However, if the atmosphere is stable and there is not much mixing, there is no influx of warmer air, and cold air starts piling up inland. The same effect is also present over Canada, but is much less pronounced because 1) Great Plains allow for greater movement of air in direction north-south than Altai and other mountain ranges south of Siberia do and 2) Rocky Mountains to the west generate atmospheric waves whenever a cyclone smashes over them which drives north-south motion, much more than Scandinavia or Urals do and 3) Siberia is simply larger. Since air contracts when cooled, this means that cold air is literally piling up over Siberia, generating a high pressure area. Pressure of over 1060mbar is quite common at peak winter. Siberian air is also much colder than polar air, since frozen ocean doesn't radiate as much heat as Siberian tundra so it doesn't cool down as quickly. Depending on atmospheric current active, this Siberian cold air can spread over neighbouring areas, and it is responsible for the severest winter cold in Europe and China.

Bernd 11/21/2017 (Tue) 06:39:17 [Preview] No.12063 del
So we can expect harsher cooling in the near future?

Bernd 11/21/2017 (Tue) 07:34:32 [Preview] No.12064 del
Perhaps. Currently there's a strong Icelandic low, which drives southwesterly winds into Europe. Also Western Siberia seems to be under effect of Icelandic low as well, ECMWF predicts the low spilling over, so any cold outflow will be towards China. But once the current pattern gets broken, Siberian high might redevelop in a different configuration, which could lead to an early cold wave into Europe.

Looking at snow situation, this year it's quite average – unlike last year, when Siberia built a large snow cover early on. Last year, the Arctic didn't want to freeze because heat was constantly pumped up from the Atlantic, which meant more evaporation over sea and therefore more precipitation over land.

Bernd 11/21/2017 (Tue) 16:51:33 [Preview] No.12066 del
We had sno today. Liek three flakes over the whole country.

Bernd 11/26/2017 (Sun) 13:41:29 [Preview] No.12154 del
big snows in Trebizond
Americans call this lake-effect snow, when cold wind blows over a warm lake/sea, picks up lots of evaporation and deposits everything on the shore where it starts rising and cooling back down
we had a little snow last night but not much

Bernd 11/27/2017 (Mon) 19:05:13 [Preview] No.12178 del
I've put links to live streams of both ongoing major volcanic eruptions (Agung and Popocatepetl) on http://radio.mewch.net/r/khantube room. Agung is definitely the main concern right now, it's shifted to actual magmatic eruption recently and due to lahars from rain and potential pyroclastic flows evacuation is in progress.


Bernd 11/27/2017 (Mon) 19:27:46 [Preview] No.12179 del
What's this mewchan radio?

Bernd 11/27/2017 (Mon) 19:32:32 [Preview] No.12180 del
blogpost about the last agung eruption in 60s

new khantube host. it's a cytu.be clone really. mewch.net opened it because he hopes tot have it as a "community event" which might get more posters on mewch, allowing it to grow. so far it's not really successful

Bernd 11/27/2017 (Mon) 19:39:28 [Preview] No.12181 del
Volcanoes are dangerous. Active volcanoes. During eruptions.

You know what they say, quality over quantity. :D

Bernd 11/28/2017 (Tue) 19:14:34 [Preview] No.12189 del
Meteurologists say we are on the edge of a Mediterranean cyclone and we'll get some precipitation (snow in the hills).

Bernd 11/28/2017 (Tue) 20:46:09 [Preview] No.12190 del
Ye I see a Genoa low forming on charts. And on TV they're scaring people about how it will be apokaliptično tonight. Will post pics of snow tomorrow.

Bernd 11/29/2017 (Wed) 20:13:05 [Preview] No.12207 del
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This ain't much snow. And now they predict some rain.

Bernd 11/29/2017 (Wed) 20:27:28 [Preview] No.12208 del
Here neither. It was raining last night, and for the day it was some rain some snow. Maybe we have about 2cm of very wet snow here.

Bernd 11/30/2017 (Thu) 07:46:34 [Preview] No.12216 del
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I guess this looks a bit like winter

Bernd 11/30/2017 (Thu) 16:40:54 [Preview] No.12223 del
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Today we really had snow. At most places it melted while the rained. That 22 is at the highest peak of the country tho (Kékes, 1014m).

Bernd 11/30/2017 (Thu) 16:56:26 [Preview] No.12224 del
top kékes

Bernd 12/02/2017 (Sat) 08:04:14 [Preview] No.12261 del
We've had some early morning frost but no real snow yet. A little bit of flurries but nothing that collects even a little bit into anything that could be called a light dusting. Temps spiked back up to around 50 Fahrenheit last few days, was pretty nice.

Bernd 12/02/2017 (Sat) 08:23:13 [Preview] No.12262 del
50F? That's about 10C right?
Well, it's still early. In the past few years (maybe it's a decade now) we didn't have proper snow until January. In fact I can't remember exactly when we had a white Christmas last time.

Bernd 12/02/2017 (Sat) 16:58:48 [Preview] No.12263 del
Oh we have snow in the hills. Or I should say ice camouflaging as snow. It melted but froze quickly shielding with white icy crust the forest floor.

Bernd 12/03/2017 (Sun) 12:13:31 [Preview] No.12272 del
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Bernd 12/03/2017 (Sun) 19:40:22 [Preview] No.12286 del
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I been skiing in the mountains today. 1st pic is valley

Bernd 12/03/2017 (Sun) 19:50:44 [Preview] No.12290 del
Oh you were skiing. Good.

Bernd 12/04/2017 (Mon) 06:25:49 [Preview] No.12294 del
What superstitions, beliefs etc. other folks have about snow?
We believe if one washes face with the first snow one will be beautiful/handsome.
Our version of the phrase when hell freezes over is when snowing red.

Bernd 12/04/2017 (Mon) 08:21:26 [Preview] No.12295 del
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Most of our folk lore about snow is about weather for agriculture, something like "if it is snowing on this holiday, the winter will be cold" etc. It is mostly related to Christianized pagan holidays and village folklore.

I couldn't easily remember something about snow that isn't related to this, maybe it is because snow is pretty common thing here.

Some known proverbs are: "like snow (falling) on the head" (something surprising and fast happened), "he/she wouldn't even give you snow in winter" (about greedy person). We also often joke about work of our road services that have problems in first snowy days, like "oh, it snow again, who could even expect this in Russia?".

Bernd 12/04/2017 (Mon) 17:19:26 [Preview] No.12298 del
>if it is snowing on this holiday...
Oh yeah we have that on Candlemas (February 2) but it means the winter will be short.
>the winter will be cold
Kek that's so typical... what is that even mean? The winter supposed to be cold. It's sames with summer when folk wisdom says it will be hot for this or that reason.

Does countries along the equator or close to it have jokes about snow? In our age they have the concept.

Bernd 12/04/2017 (Mon) 17:34:13 [Preview] No.12301 del
Village of Bloke (coldest inhabited place in Slovenia) measured -21°C this morning.

Bernd 12/04/2017 (Mon) 17:41:03 [Preview] No.12303 del
That's fukken cold. Here. At this time.

Bernd 12/04/2017 (Mon) 18:11:54 [Preview] No.12304 del
meanwhile in Arabian Sea, storm from >>12222 has grown pretty strong

luckily the storm will dissipate before hitting India again due to dry air and unfavorable higher atmosphere conditions

Bernd 12/04/2017 (Mon) 21:12:32 [Preview] No.12307 del
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>Kek that's so typical... what is that even mean? The winter supposed to be cold.

It can be just cold or cold as "oh shit it is fucking cold". Although it is often more complex than cold in this folklore, it is about rainy, snowy etc.

Also, contrary to popular opinion, large part of core Russian territory hasn't really cold winters.

Bernd 12/05/2017 (Tue) 18:03:31 [Preview] No.12317 del
>luckily the storm will dissipate before hitting India
Else it would turn into a giant shitstorm.

Bernd 12/10/2017 (Sun) 18:07:44 [Preview] No.12517 del
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I'm liking how this winter started. Northwestern Europe perhaps not so much.


Those deep incursions of polar air between the lows.

Bernd 12/10/2017 (Sun) 18:11:03 [Preview] No.12518 del
Weather situations in Slovenia: below -10°C this morning, now it's snowing, but as that low moves over France this means we're getting wind straight from North Africa, temperatures should go up to above 10°C tomorrow, lots of rain, and also wind. probably up to 100km/h winds and up to 100mm of rain.

Bernd 12/10/2017 (Sun) 18:32:36 [Preview] No.12519 del
Meanwhile, weather in central Russia continues to be normal, varying from -5 to +5 with occasional snowing. Allah blesses the pious.

Although recently something happened in Moscow and ait in half of city smelled literally like rotten sauerkraut for a day. Authorities said that it is ok and possibly related to work on some dump near city.


I blame Trump.

Bernd 12/10/2017 (Sun) 18:34:42 [Preview] No.12520 del


Bernd 12/10/2017 (Sun) 19:22:01 [Preview] No.12522 del
>Authorities said that it is ok
Then nothing to worry about...

Yeah they predict up to 17 on Tuesday. Better invest into swimwear.

Bernd 12/11/2017 (Mon) 11:22:54 [Preview] No.12543 del
fug it's windy.

Bernd 12/11/2017 (Mon) 17:04:00 [Preview] No.12556 del
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In France: peak winds 161km/h, lowest pressure 956mbar.

Meanwhile England is below -10°C and locally 20-30cm of snow.

I'll see what I can find about situation in Slovenia; southwest has had heavy rain at night, but I'm living in the capital and instead we just had strong warm winds.

Bernd 12/11/2017 (Mon) 20:20:58 [Preview] No.12559 del
We're gonna have rainy week which is pretty regrettable won't make my away time more fun.
I'll be buck on Friday, don't break the board until then. Good night, Bernds.

Bernd 12/11/2017 (Mon) 21:36:38 [Preview] No.12560 del
night a bernd friend

pics and vids, and my met friends say they measured 100km/h winds in the valley and 130km/h on the hills
the skiing slopes where I been skiing last weekend had about 140-150km/h max winds from what I read on the charts

Bernd 12/26/2017 (Tue) 19:41:34 [Preview] No.12743 del
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very cold in north america

Bernd 12/26/2017 (Tue) 19:59:08 [Preview] No.12744 del
Some places we had 10+ today. Tomorrow will be the sames. Also fog.
I wanted snow and frost so I could wander around in the woods carelessly. But I got mud and damp. In precise meteorological terminology: it sucks.

Bernd 12/27/2017 (Wed) 10:02:31 [Preview] No.12755 del
yep and we're getting genoa low rains again. which means, by the time it gets cold enough for snow, it will get sunny again

Bernd 12/27/2017 (Wed) 11:28:19 [Preview] No.12756 del
How was the movie night here btw? I took a peek for a moment but I had to go.
Säge for offtopic.

Bernd 12/28/2017 (Thu) 15:35:18 [Preview] No.12772 del
Odili's movie night? I was participating about as much as you lol.

Meanwhile in Australia.

Bernd 12/28/2017 (Thu) 18:09:42 [Preview] No.12773 del
They're gonna get some rain there. Desert rejoices.

Bernd 01/01/2018 (Mon) 16:07:52 [Preview] No.12850 del
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temps in north america

Bernd 01/01/2018 (Mon) 18:12:13 [Preview] No.12851 del
That's pretty cold. How's the average and what to blame?

Bernd 01/01/2018 (Mon) 18:31:55 [Preview] No.12852 del

Bernd 01/01/2018 (Mon) 21:01:28 [Preview] No.12856 del
Lol a wind turbine got rekt in France by wind.

Bernd 01/02/2018 (Tue) 12:06:08 [Preview] No.12862 del
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A storm (named Eleanor) is expected to rapidly develop as it passes Ireland and Britain. There is very strong jet stream over North Atlantic at the moment, this is what causes those atmospheric vortices to form (the force of the wind flowing out of the stream creates a cyclonic vortex of low pressure at the northern side of the outflow of the jet stream to the east).

Bernd 01/03/2018 (Wed) 16:47:14 [Preview] No.12886 del
>950 hpa on East Coast
>meanwhile 1038 at Winnipeg

Bernd 01/04/2018 (Thu) 16:23:24 [Preview] No.12897 del
Yeah, I haven't missed the blizzard part.

Bernd 01/04/2018 (Thu) 17:16:59 [Preview] No.12898 del
models show it at 956mbar / 130km/h winds right now

Bernd 01/04/2018 (Thu) 18:07:04 [Preview] No.12900 del
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That's a beautiful picture.

Bernd 01/04/2018 (Thu) 19:56:30 [Preview] No.12906 del
there should be more, I wonder if they'll publish the pic from satellite SUOMI

I wish I knew good American stormchaser websites I only got this for now

Bernd 01/04/2018 (Thu) 22:17:43 [Preview] No.12908 del
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shieet, look at this storm tide in boston, possibly highest ever measured

Bernd 01/05/2018 (Fri) 09:06:54 [Preview] No.12920 del
lol the tide was so high the instrument couldn't read it

Bernd 01/07/2018 (Sun) 09:34:41 [Preview] No.12952 del
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Sucks to be them. Or not for those more adventurous types.

Do you think we'll have winter this winter eventually?

Bernd 01/07/2018 (Sun) 18:57:35 [Preview] No.12956 del
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The way it looks I'd say not. Jet stream is stable in double polar vortex configuration with warm weather in Europe and Alaska and cold weather in Siberia and Canada. But it's still possible that there's a change in pattern in February.

Bernd 01/08/2018 (Mon) 21:28:13 [Preview] No.12968 del

Bernd 01/08/2018 (Mon) 23:17:26 [Preview] No.12969 del
Meanwhile, Central Russia had +1-+5 and almost no snow for weeks, and only tomorrow something would change.

Such life in snow-meme country.

Bernd 01/09/2018 (Tue) 06:36:23 [Preview] No.12977 del
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what's the general mood? severe faggotry with a chance of yurocuck?

Bernd 01/09/2018 (Tue) 10:41:44 [Preview] No.12978 del
China is experiencing a similar cold wave rn
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ungPUWy4ess [Embed]

Bernd 01/09/2018 (Tue) 17:43:52 [Preview] No.12982 del
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Fucking dammit. We have to return to China I want snow.

Bernd 01/10/2018 (Wed) 09:31:32 [Preview] No.12989 del
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Shitloads of snow in western Alps. There was a stalled front because of interaction between the usual westward-travelling weather fronts from Northern Europe and the cyclone over Spain which meant it has been continuously snowing for last few days. I read 3-4m fresh snow, much more locally in valleys bc of avalanches and shit.

Bernd 01/10/2018 (Wed) 13:15:03 [Preview] No.12990 del
does china not get much snowfall normally? at least, the affected provinces, given how big it is geographically.

Bernd 01/10/2018 (Wed) 16:30:28 [Preview] No.12991 del
Yeah. Wind also could help somewhat to stack snow high at certain places.
I heard settlements were cut off.

Bernd 01/10/2018 (Wed) 18:02:52 [Preview] No.12994 del
It does, but like how it's been in US, the cold pushed further south than usual. Shanghai was at around freezing point day temperatures, for comparison that's almost as far south as Houston.

Bernd 01/11/2018 (Thu) 17:55:43 [Preview] No.13013 del
Rejoice fellow eastern Europeans!
Proper winter is coming next week. Should be here by Wednesday.

Bernd 01/11/2018 (Thu) 19:31:30 [Preview] No.13020 del
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Bernd 01/13/2018 (Sat) 20:00:31 [Preview] No.13040 del
Has it snowed yet? I'm seeing some light snow on charts coming from the east, pumped by the low over Greece.

And, looking at long term forecasts, after about a week the models go chaotic and there's huge discrepancy in predictions. Basically, there's a pattern breaking and it's pretty much impossible to predict what happens next.

Bernd 01/13/2018 (Sat) 20:06:05 [Preview] No.13041 del
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Oh also, the weather on Svalbard: Rain, 4°C. Perhaps some snow. But right now it should be -13°C there. Why such weather? There's a persistent high over Russia preventing the Iceland low from moving, which means there are strong southerly winds pumping heat and moisture far north. Across the British isles this means a stationary occluded front, in Svalbard this means warm wet weather.

Bernd 01/13/2018 (Sat) 20:06:30 [Preview] No.13042 del
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Bernd 01/13/2018 (Sat) 21:52:55 [Preview] No.13044 del
Yeah. All day but it's nothing due to temperature. Most of the country got rain and snow mix and now snowing. Tonight some places will get -5C and the next few days it will remain about 0. Then the heat will come back with +5 and more... But I hope not.

Bernd 01/14/2018 (Sun) 07:56:15 [Preview] No.13049 del
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Oh yeah, it's more like it. Won't stick however but till Tuesday it will be okay.
Yesterday some places the snow melted but during the night it froze and was covered by further snow. It's slippery out there.

Bernd 01/14/2018 (Sun) 11:33:06 [Preview] No.13052 del
Woods looks nice. But under the snow mud is all over the place. No fun to walk around on that slippery wallow.

Bernd 01/14/2018 (Sun) 15:03:10 [Preview] No.13054 del
Ye until the ground freezes it would be smart to avoid woods.

Bernd 01/14/2018 (Sun) 15:50:11 [Preview] No.13056 del
Can't avoid. Too tempting.

Bernd 01/14/2018 (Sun) 20:02:43 [Preview] No.13060 del
I get u m8

the low over Iceland is now really fucking intense, deepened to 945mbar

Bernd 01/14/2018 (Sun) 22:00:04 [Preview] No.13063 del
How much you know about the effects of the weather and it's changes on the human body?
I have a pal with a bad knee he was probably an adventurer which hurts in certain circumstances like when storm comes and such. But I think about other stuff as well, joint and headaches, lack of focus, blood pressure etc.
What could be the cause? The changes of atmospheric pressure? Humidity? Something else?

Bernd 01/14/2018 (Sun) 22:15:51 [Preview] No.13067 del
Air pressure I don't think is the factor, because then you'd have similar problems when going up or down. Air pressure generally varies by about 25mbar, that's approximately 200m altitude difference. It's probably linked to humidity. Or could it be from electrical effects? Humid air is much more conductive, and convection affects atmospheric electric field (which is why lightnings occur).

Bernd 01/15/2018 (Mon) 06:26:32 [Preview] No.13070 del
>Air pressure I don't think is the factor, because then you'd have similar problems when going up or down.
Huh. You're right. It would be replicable otherwise.

Bernd 01/16/2018 (Tue) 01:50:58 [Preview] No.13083 del
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This is a nice one.
Would be even nicer if it spinned out over high seas...

Bernd 01/16/2018 (Tue) 10:37:59 [Preview] No.13086 del
Now that's a big pressure difference.

Bernd 01/16/2018 (Tue) 16:13:51 [Preview] No.13087 del
It snowed today like it was actually winter here.

Bernd 01/16/2018 (Tue) 16:50:48 [Preview] No.13091 del
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Oh ye I've seen it on the models!

Bernd 01/16/2018 (Tue) 17:12:18 [Preview] No.13097 del
You haven't got any snow up until now this winter??

>record breaking rines

Bernd 01/16/2018 (Tue) 17:20:59 [Preview] No.13098 del
Well it did snow, but temperature was so high you could say it was actually raining mud. Now it was proper snowing.

Bernd 01/16/2018 (Tue) 17:46:23 [Preview] No.13100 del

Bernd 01/16/2018 (Tue) 18:43:00 [Preview] No.13101 del
Oh yeah record briking rines. And gd ewning. Biggest downpause ever recorded.

Bernd 01/16/2018 (Tue) 18:46:12 [Preview] No.13102 del
Also that dude caught a big cop with his fishing gear.

Bernd 01/17/2018 (Wed) 16:25:00 [Preview] No.13118 del
Remember when I talked about early start of winter in Siberia higher up in this thread?
Öymököön hit -62°C already.

Bernd 01/17/2018 (Wed) 16:26:14 [Preview] No.13119 del
Fore the Polish Bernd, I see you're having another round of snow tomorrow evening.

Bernd 01/17/2018 (Wed) 16:46:58 [Preview] No.13121 del
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Jesus. That's fuckin cold.
>breaking the digital thermometer installed last year to appeal to tourists.
>breaking ... the thermometer

Bernd 01/17/2018 (Wed) 20:25:16 [Preview] No.13133 del
>Local residents also publish selfie with snow-covered eyelashes in the frost and write that they do not suffer from the cold at all.
That's hypothermia.

t. watcher of South Park

Bernd 01/17/2018 (Wed) 20:27:34 [Preview] No.13134 del
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Bernd 01/17/2018 (Wed) 20:49:40 [Preview] No.13136 del
Another thought. About -10C many times breath freeze onto my stache, sometimes onto my beard too.

Bernd 01/18/2018 (Thu) 23:35:17 [Preview] No.13159 del
netherlands got rekt today

for me it starts around -5°C
I guess high humidity and using bike helps it

Bernd 01/19/2018 (Fri) 09:27:26 [Preview] No.13165 del
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top wind measurements of yesterday

Bernd 01/19/2018 (Fri) 09:47:03 [Preview] No.13167 del
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when cold is cold, you make cold warm.

Bernd 01/19/2018 (Fri) 20:30:32 [Preview] No.13176 del
We got warm winds today. What little snow we had is nothing now.

How old is he? 60 something? Keeps himself well. Compared to Eastern Europeans.

Bernd 01/19/2018 (Fri) 23:21:24 [Preview] No.13181 del
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>How old is he? 60 something? Keeps himself well. Compared to Eastern Europeans.

He is 65.

Although there is conspiracy theories that he often uses doubles or maybe he isn't even real. They are based on difference in ears, face features and more.

I don't like conspiracy theories and don't believe in them but:
1) It is 2018
2) We are living in postmodern world
3) Buddha said that everything isn't real already

So they may be right.

Bernd 01/20/2018 (Sat) 08:24:23 [Preview] No.13182 del
>He is 65

Yeah I seen these on KC main. Fun.
I have an explanation for the thin/chinky eyed puffy faced pictures. I have not one but two people among my friends who got similar looks when they got drunk. So I guess I would put that look onto the alcohols tab.

Bernd 01/20/2018 (Sat) 09:30:50 [Preview] No.13186 del
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>I have an explanation for the thin/chinky eyed puffy faced pictures. I have not one but two people among my friends who got similar looks when they got drunk. So I guess I would put that look onto the alcohols tab.

That doesn't explain ears. Although face transformation explained by botox injection (it is known meme about him). And, officially, he doesn't smoke and rarely drinks, and also have a healthy lifestyle.

Back to original thread theme: now Moscow have snow for days. At least it is looks like real winter. Meteorologists promise that next week will be really cold. Pic from window.

Bernd 01/20/2018 (Sat) 11:35:23 [Preview] No.13187 del
>That doesn't explain ears.
No that doesn't.
>And, officially, he doesn't smoke and rarely drinks, and also have a healthy lifestyle.
I guess if I was leader of Russia, the one the people wait guidance from and know the unhealthy habits of my country I also would try to keep myself away from the image of the drunkard (Yeltsin).

Hm. I thought you are mongol from Siberia. I also thought Russia has snow all over the place by now.

In Hungarian news: corruption, corruption, students are protesting in Budapest, a municipal waste disposal plant burns at Vác, corruption, the migrant smuggling AN-2 was from the Ukraine, corruption.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=lH2jB30IyC4 [Embed]

Bernd 01/20/2018 (Sat) 11:36:55 [Preview] No.13188 del
Oh fuck I thought this is the random news thread. Kek.

Bernd 01/20/2018 (Sat) 15:32:09 [Preview] No.13189 del
those 3 pics seem to be pretty different angles, tbh.

Bernd 01/21/2018 (Sun) 12:38:19 [Preview] No.13198 del

Bernd 01/21/2018 (Sun) 18:36:51 [Preview] No.13207 del
I kinda expected it. The 1963 eruption started similarly, then went quiet for a bit, and ended up in full pyroclastic flow eruption a month later. This time it's more strombolian it seems, less ash but still gassy.

Bernd 01/22/2018 (Mon) 16:40:17 [Preview] No.13239 del
>Because of this, the Danger Zone is extended to 8 km (5 miles) from the summit vent.
Not many settlements are situated inside that range. There's a planetarium tho.

Bernd 01/22/2018 (Mon) 16:45:13 [Preview] No.13241 del
two weeks ago
https://youtube.com/watch?v=C8l1FnB0_Lc [Embed]

Bernd 01/22/2018 (Mon) 17:13:11 [Preview] No.13243 del
Are they Australians?

Bernd 01/22/2018 (Mon) 20:58:44 [Preview] No.13253 del
Nah doesn't sound like, I think he's Irish

Bernd 01/23/2018 (Tue) 20:50:11 [Preview] No.13258 del
japs had a bit of a volcano happening
and a bit of a weather happening, a bit reminiscent of the blizzard in US east coast earlier

there was also a big earthquake off coast of Alaska but luckily no big waves

Bernd 01/25/2018 (Thu) 17:51:56 [Preview] No.13300 del

Bernd 01/25/2018 (Thu) 18:38:08 [Preview] No.13304 del
>Low temperatures in Tokyo are expected to reach -3 °C
I wish we'd have such. It's +10 again at some places.

Bernd 01/25/2018 (Thu) 22:11:36 [Preview] No.13312 del
Sames. It's a weird winter. Instead of Genoa lows forming and dropping snow on Balkans, everything either gets sent all the way to Cyprus and drops snow over Turkey, or is deflected and goes over Atlas mountains.

Bernd 01/29/2018 (Mon) 00:01:22 [Preview] No.13382 del

I've put a video stream of multiple volcano cams with Agung and Mayon in main focus on http://radio.mewch.net/r/khantube. I have no idea what's gonna happen, and when, if ever, but activity of Agung is picking up and from chatrooms I've seen speculation the mountain is bulging (which is bad, remember mt st helens?)

Bernd 01/29/2018 (Mon) 16:50:14 [Preview] No.13394 del
Dun goofed the khantube link with that period in the end.
>remember mt st helens?
No. But I remember Thera.

Bernd 01/30/2018 (Tue) 06:21:31 [Preview] No.13414 del
Actually I remember that it was mentioned in the media back then when actual documentaries and nature films were made. And maybe in geography lessons. But not particularities.

Bernd 01/31/2018 (Wed) 17:06:30 [Preview] No.13444 del
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Bernd 01/31/2018 (Wed) 17:15:21 [Preview] No.13446 del
Good for you. We have too warm weather for snow.

Bernd 01/31/2018 (Wed) 18:06:34 [Preview] No.13449 del
So do we. It should only cool down once the cold front passes, when it starts snowing from the Genoa low forming.

Bernd 01/31/2018 (Wed) 23:28:56 [Preview] No.13458 del
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>tfw I'll never have snow here

Bernd 02/01/2018 (Thu) 01:07:20 [Preview] No.13459 del
I pity you, friend. Shoveling snow is a great excuse to have a cigarette.

Bernd 02/01/2018 (Thu) 06:42:43 [Preview] No.13460 del
What would you say, Slovene Bernd, what is the longest period the weather can be predicted reliably?

>I pity you, friend.
>Shoveling snow is a great excuse to have a back pain.

Bernd 02/01/2018 (Thu) 10:12:11 [Preview] No.13464 del
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>I want fucking snow.

We have much now. Yesterday even my boss got light car crash because of snow.

Bernd 02/01/2018 (Thu) 11:18:56 [Preview] No.13465 del
a little snow is the least of your worries man. Did you go long without internet or possibly more important services? My dad had to take of logistics for some of the contracts his company sent down there and shit seemed pretty brutal.
They stayed for a couple of nights in a movie theater that was "renting" space out and had to shower with a garden hose.

Bernd 02/01/2018 (Thu) 11:22:13 [Preview] No.13466 del
*take care of the logistics for some of the contractors

Bernd 02/01/2018 (Thu) 13:38:26 [Preview] No.13467 del
From what I've seen, it's usually 10-14 days. After that mathematical chaos fucks you up, regardless of preciseness of input. The theory of mathematical chaos and how fast solutions diverge was derived by a Russian guy called Lyapunov, you can use it to predict this time of randomisation.
For tropical regions however it's much shorter, on scale of 3-4 days, because the processes there are more driven by convection than global circulation (which has higher persistence).

Bernd 02/01/2018 (Thu) 13:39:13 [Preview] No.13468 del
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Oh and here comes the snow. Over 2m in some parts of the mountains, apparently.

Bernd 02/02/2018 (Fri) 09:51:18 [Preview] No.13484 del
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Bernd 02/02/2018 (Fri) 13:54:30 [Preview] No.13488 del
this just in: already 1m of fresh snow on Vogel mountain

Bernd 02/02/2018 (Fri) 16:57:57 [Preview] No.13491 del
I'm jello.

Bernd 02/03/2018 (Sat) 10:28:22 [Preview] No.13505 del
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The snow arrived here too.
And melts right away. Poo.

Bernd 02/03/2018 (Sat) 11:20:01 [Preview] No.13507 del
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we have a word for this, plundra

still snowing btw

Bernd 02/04/2018 (Sun) 08:34:17 [Preview] No.13519 del
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And now we have record amount of snow. It is more than last max in 1957.


Bernd 02/04/2018 (Sun) 09:15:22 [Preview] No.13520 del
Doesn't seem that much snow. Maybe it's very humid like what we got. Kinda slush heavy shit that sticks to things. Here I see branches and young trees bowing low under their weight.

Bernd 02/04/2018 (Sun) 10:08:03 [Preview] No.13521 del
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>Doesn't seem that much snow. Maybe it's very humid like what we got.

Yes, it doesn't look like heavy snowfall, but actually it is. Humidity is 90% according to weather sites.

My camera is also pretty shitty so it couldn't properly show amount of falling snow.

Bernd 02/04/2018 (Sun) 14:50:22 [Preview] No.13523 del
That view could be on the Hungary too. The commieblock residential areas are all the same everywhere.

Bernd 02/06/2018 (Tue) 06:11:07 [Preview] No.13539 del
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The result of the weekends precipitation. Top Kékes and the hills in North East has a good amount. Elsewhere a Big O. It's just too warm.

Bernd 02/10/2018 (Sat) 17:39:06 [Preview] No.13608 del
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I'm starting to worry.

Bernd 02/10/2018 (Sat) 18:08:45 [Preview] No.13609 del
problems arent
CO₂ is an extremely irrelevant metric; correlation with atmospheric temperatures actually goes the other way, as CO₂ is better soluble in colder water, like all gases; also, CO₂ greenhouse effect is minuscule to that caused by H₂O, both in gaseous phase and as clouds

Bernd 02/11/2018 (Sun) 09:18:37 [Preview] No.13615 del
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Just learn to love the CO2.

Bernd 02/11/2018 (Sun) 14:51:39 [Preview] No.13618 del
But clouds also have a cooling effect by increasing albedo.

Bernd 02/11/2018 (Sun) 14:57:16 [Preview] No.13619 del
I thought I was only one with cloud fetish

Bernd 02/12/2018 (Mon) 16:57:14 [Preview] No.13642 del
Oh yeah, I wanted to make a TONGA I just didn't know what to put on it. I have a notion now.

Bernd 02/12/2018 (Mon) 23:26:07 [Preview] No.13646 del
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Jet stream breakdown.

There was a warning for sudden stratospheric warming earlier but I think I didn't post it bc I realised I don't really understand the mechanism; it's something about warm air being pumped through stratosphere into the polar vortex where it descends and warms up, causing reversal in wind direction in the stratosphere

Bernd 02/15/2018 (Thu) 17:09:34 [Preview] No.13685 del
Why this phenomenon has such mysterious quality? Also where the initial warm air forms? Coz the mesosphere supposed to be colder just like the upper region of troposphere.

Bernd 02/15/2018 (Thu) 21:25:45 [Preview] No.13693 del
Mesosphere is indeed colder, but its potential temperature is higher. If you take air and lift it, allowing to expand (because of pressure difference), its temperature will drop by about 10°C per each km. You may note that the gradient of temperatures is never above that; this is expected, for otherwise the warm air would be able to convectively rise, even when dry (condensation of water releases some extra energy, which means that in wet conditions, gradients for triggering convections are lower).

So, the main explanation says: the air rises from equatorial parts of stratosphere, and transports through the upper stratosphere or perhaps even mesosphere towards the pole. The pole has cooled down because stratosphere is heated by UV radiation from the Sun (this is why it can have positive temperature gradient with height); a process that also produces ozone; and during the winter poles receive no solar irradiation, causing it to start cooling down. Also, tropopause is lower at the poles, so stratosphere starts at lower heights and thus higher pressure. So, the equatorial stratospheric air somehow transports across and falls into the polar vortex, where it descends, and heats up (because of pressure differences). Why this happens? It's presumed to be connected to situations of split polar vortex, the details aren't clear, but whenever there's an intrusion of warm air, it seems to come from Tibet (which is high enough to mix up air around the tropopause), or from the Rockies; in both cases apparently a mountain range near the centre of the split polar vortex triggers transport of air over said vortex at lower stratospheric heights into the main vortex in upper stratosphere.

Bernd 02/18/2018 (Sun) 08:20:11 [Preview] No.13721 del
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I sure love to start the day with a warming-up snow shoveling.

Bernd 02/18/2018 (Sun) 18:41:02 [Preview] No.13728 del
I see, I guess.
So the air coming down from the higher regions of the stratosphere into the polar vortex warms up and splits and some part (or all?) of it rises back.
What does this change in the weather effecting us (as in surfacedwellers and not just us here at about the Carpathian basin)?

Bernd 02/18/2018 (Sun) 19:01:49 [Preview] No.13731 del
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Generally the heat starts diffusing, which makes the polar vortex weaker, in turn weakening the wind streams around it. This is why the jet stream is breaking lower down.

And it seems an anomalous loop (I mean, look at this anticyclonic loop over Norwegian/Greenland Sea) that's going to form from the jet stream is going to bring eastern winds and severe cold to Europe in a week or so.

actually, what I see happening here is that the global circulation is trying to transition from 3-cell pattern into 5-cell pattern; however the transition is temporary and incomplete

Bernd 02/19/2018 (Mon) 08:30:40 [Preview] No.13734 del
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And now for some volcanism.

Something's going on east of Grímsey off north coast of Iceland. There's been a lot of shaking over the last 5 days, but magma movement hasn't been spotted yet (it's possible to see magma on earthquake plots because earthquakes can't occur within liquid magma, so it will show as a cavity in an earthquake swarm). This would also be the first documented eruption in the area so it's hard to compare it to anything. Grímsey is located near the rift, within the Tjörnes Fracture Zone where there's strike-slip movement occurring; the southern part moves westwards and the northern part moves eastwards.


Bernd 02/19/2018 (Mon) 08:59:17 [Preview] No.13735 del
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Bernd 02/19/2018 (Mon) 09:31:39 [Preview] No.13739 del
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i lik cinabon

Bernd 02/19/2018 (Mon) 10:49:46 [Preview] No.13741 del
me to budy

Bernd 02/19/2018 (Mon) 11:18:01 [Preview] No.13742 del
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It's possible that some new pressure records will be set. Models indicate high of around 1060mbar; current record is 22–23 January 1907 in Pärnu, Estonia and Riga, Latvia at 1067.1mbar, with some higher but unconfirmed measurements reported. However the center will be over Scandinavia this time, where record measurements were (during the same event): Norway: 23 January 1907, Dalen, Telemark 1061.3mbar; Sweden: 23 January 1907 in Kalmar and Visby 1063.7mbar; Finland: 22 January 1907, Helsinki 1066mbar. At least the Norway record might fall.

Bernd 02/21/2018 (Wed) 11:44:52 [Preview] No.13771 del
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Damn, those temperature anomalies!

Bernd 02/21/2018 (Wed) 16:49:37 [Preview] No.13774 del
Finally. We're gonna have trüe winter. Now that winter comes to its end.

Bernd 02/23/2018 (Fri) 18:14:10 [Preview] No.13810 del
With the weekend comes the winter. Still some snow left and the temperature will be below 0 from now on for a while. For next week we can expect -20C at some places which is very low here. More snow comes and as for me I will be out in the woods finally. Gonna make angels in the snow, ha.

Bernd 02/23/2018 (Fri) 23:04:42 [Preview] No.13812 del
I'm going cross country skiing a bit tomorrow. Tracks should be laid down.
The cold arrives tomorrow evening by forecast.

Bernd 02/24/2018 (Sat) 16:11:42 [Preview] No.13816 del
Hey I saw a pair of tracks. Have you lost your way and ended up in Hungary?

Bernd 02/24/2018 (Sat) 17:27:47 [Preview] No.13820 del
I have no idea where I been going but at least I found my way back :)

Bernd 02/24/2018 (Sat) 17:39:29 [Preview] No.13821 del
You are fast, mang. A real sportsman.

Bernd 02/25/2018 (Sun) 16:11:22 [Preview] No.13829 del
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I am.

Bernd 02/26/2018 (Mon) 20:46:20 [Preview] No.13861 del
The weather is getting worse day by day.

Bernd 02/26/2018 (Mon) 20:50:46 [Preview] No.13862 del
Wtf? Why am I in Lithuania?

Bernd 02/26/2018 (Mon) 22:06:52 [Preview] No.13864 del
Maybe you took the wrong turn.

Yeah, the wind is quite chilly and unpleasant. Makes my eyes water. Well next time when I complain about the hot weather in summer I'll think twice.

Bernd 02/28/2018 (Wed) 17:22:25 [Preview] No.13894 del
How are temperatures for you folks?
It's been -13°C here in the morning, and -4°C during the day. Bloke (that coldest inhabited place in Slovenia) measured -27°C.

Also some guy froze last night in front of his house. He lives alone, went get wood for the fire without putting on warm clothes, slipped and couldn't get up.
Another guy survived but his bod temperature was already down to 21°C when the ambulance found him.

Bernd 02/28/2018 (Wed) 17:44:34 [Preview] No.13895 del
>How are temperatures for you folks?

Near -20 at night, and -15 at day. Rather cold for Moscow but not really extreme or something - one/two weeks of -20 at winter is ok there.

Although people whine as always that it is fucking cold. I think we need to deport all warm-lovers from here.

Bernd 02/28/2018 (Wed) 19:37:33 [Preview] No.13900 del
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Sames as yours. Except I saw fresh ice patches here and there so it had to be warm enough to melt the snow. Wind is still tough without that it would be quite nice.
Our police officers gave hot tea to a couple of Romanians whose car was broke.

Bernd 02/28/2018 (Wed) 19:38:51 [Preview] No.13901 del
I mean broken down.

Bernd 02/28/2018 (Wed) 19:41:13 [Preview] No.13902 del
Also usually several hobos frieze to death when the weather turns this cold. I dunno how's it going now.

Bernd 02/28/2018 (Wed) 19:59:26 [Preview] No.13903 del
coldest here is -10 in Scotland so far I think, the government issued a "threat to life" warning lmao

Bernd 03/01/2018 (Thu) 16:20:33 [Preview] No.13918 del
lol, britain in charge of dealing with weather events

Bernd 03/01/2018 (Thu) 20:19:58 [Preview] No.13927 del
today we nearly ran out of gas too
proofs: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/01/uk-is-running-out-of-gas-national-grid-warns-freezing-weather
there's always some good keks to be had during UK winters

Bernd 03/02/2018 (Fri) 06:24:15 [Preview] No.13932 del
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It's time to annex Norway.

Bernd 03/02/2018 (Fri) 09:01:23 [Preview] No.13935 del
flippin the channels I saw a headline saying some famous croatian waterfall froze for the first time in a long time but can't find a corresponding story on the internet...

Bernd 03/02/2018 (Fri) 13:28:41 [Preview] No.13940 del
Plitvice is the name – you should be able to find it now :)

Bernd 03/13/2018 (Tue) 20:09:30 [Preview] No.14151 del
The God's cock! On Sunday and Mondey it will snow again. And we'll get some minuses too. I wanted to plant my radishes on the weekend. Now I can't or they gonna freeze. Skandalum.

Bernd 03/13/2018 (Tue) 21:16:59 [Preview] No.14152 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=A5ubcGt8Gfo [Embed]
ty slov-kun

Bernd 03/14/2018 (Wed) 16:58:14 [Preview] No.14158 del
Wow. That's butifel. I think Croatian mainland is highly (lowly?) underrated by Hungarian tourists. Everyone goes to the beaches.

Bernd 03/18/2018 (Sun) 22:14:02 [Preview] No.14637 del
It's cold outside, don't go outside.

Bernd 03/18/2018 (Sun) 22:25:40 [Preview] No.14638 del
See those geological wonders? They're about 30km inland from Makarska. Two of the biggest sinkholes in the world (outside China or Papua...)
Tourists are almost completely unaware of them.

Bernd 03/18/2018 (Sun) 22:27:07 [Preview] No.14639 del
another pic of the 1st one at lower water level, I seen some pics also when it's completely dried out but I can't find them

Bernd 03/18/2018 (Sun) 22:38:29 [Preview] No.14641 del
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found it

Bernd 04/13/2018 (Fri) 05:15:35 [Preview] No.15885 del
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Few weeks ago it was winter. And now it's summer. Where's my spring? I want my spring.

Bernd 04/13/2018 (Fri) 05:29:59 [Preview] No.15886 del
I completely missed these posts.
>Tourists are almost completely unaware of them
Maybe that's why looks still beautiful. At Egerszalók (NE Hungary) a hot spring washes out salt from the depths in several colors depending on what other minerals are mixed in it but parts are white and looks like glaciers as the salt is built up all around and forms basins where the warm water gathers. I'm not sure the level of human interference that helped to create it nevertheless it's a good example that it was a spot of beauty the last time I was there and now they built a giant spa-hotel monstrosity there making the view less idyllic and as a memento of human greed.

Bernd 04/13/2018 (Fri) 18:39:43 [Preview] No.15902 del
this so much, It was 25 degrees today which is my maximum comfortable temperature and it's only april

Bernd 04/14/2018 (Sat) 08:48:25 [Preview] No.15927 del
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big if true

Bernd 04/14/2018 (Sat) 08:54:55 [Preview] No.15929 del
The tornado part?

Bernd 04/14/2018 (Sat) 09:05:07 [Preview] No.15931 del
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some explanation for the situation: because of the low over northwest africa (which is going to move to the northeast) there's hot air from sahara being pumped over the mediterranean into eastern europe
this hot, now also moist air means favourable conditions for storm formation during the day
meanwhile, the situation in western europe is different, with much colder air, the two clashing
where there's temperature gradient, because cold air is denser, there is also a difference in how pressure field looks at ground level and higher up – this is called the thermal wind
this means that rising air will not rise straight, but will be pushed into a spinning column of air, and the storm that forms will have the structure of a mesocyclone; there's a persistent vortex within the storm, and the storm has well-defined leading and trailing sides
such storms, because of their spin, can generate tornadoes

also, if you compare the weather conditions with the favourable tornado alley conditions, it's actually quite similar; but because of vast north-south plains in north america and the rocky mountans range to the west which causes winds to oscillate north-south on the eastern side, the mechanism is amplified there.

Bernd 04/15/2018 (Sun) 07:42:48 [Preview] No.15948 del
Not again. Fucking Africa.
How's the situation going?

Bernd 04/17/2018 (Tue) 06:02:47 [Preview] No.16007 del
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Nice mesocyclone.

Bernd 04/17/2018 (Tue) 06:03:51 [Preview] No.16008 del
Some places had quite bad hail but if the system reached this mature stage (it only started merging from smaller cells towards the evening) it'd be much worse because more heat available.

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