Last polls are out. One has Bolsonaro at 55%, and another, at 54%, with Haddad at 45% or 46%. With all votes factored in, Bolsonaro's margin of advantage is a couple points higher. I'd say at this point Bolsonaro has a 90% chance of victory.
Ciro Gomes has arrived in the country after three weeks resting in Europe. As he had declared support for Haddad as soon as first round results were published, his allies requested -and everyone expected- he'd make a video formally requesting votes for Haddad. Instead, he spoke in a pro-Haddad tone, asking people to vote "for democracy and against intolerance" but refused to take a stand. Earlier on, his son caused a ruckus after chastising Lula and the PT on a campaign event; he later clarified he's still voting Haddad, but the damage was done and Bolsonaro used footage of the incident in his propaganda. It's a pleasure to see the PDT giving the middle finger to the PT: as an old, sophisticated organization, they're still salty over being reduced to a junior partner to Lula's crude and power-hungry party.
Lula celebrates his birthday today. Nicolás Maduro expressed his support, while Senator and national PT president Gleisi Hoffmann said a Haddad victory followed by a presidential pardon would be an ideal birthday gift.
Gubernatorial second rounds are also held in 14 states tomorrow. Trends in gubernatorial elections this year have been a shift to the right, a high rate of renewal, and several surprises. Notable campaigns include:
São Paulo: João Dória (PSDB), São Paulo mayor elected in 2016 who resigned to run, faces off against Márcio França (PSB), the state's vice-governor elected in 2014 as Alckmin's running mate and governor since April 2018, when Alckmin resigned to run for President. A popular mayor, Dória initially had a large advantage and tried to associate himself with Bolsonaro. However, Bolsonaro refused to take a side, with PSL figures divided in their support, while even figures in Doria's own party backed França. Then Dória's sex scandal >>20241
made an impact. Dória melted away in polls, with the latest showing him at 50% or 49%. This will be a very tight and unpredictable race.
Minas Gerais: Romeu Zema (NOVO), a minor candidate who rose spectacularly in the first round, faces off against senator Antônio Anastasia (PSDB). Like São Paulo, this is a battle between a Bolsonaro-supporting new right candidate and an old centrist. But Zema has a comfortable advantage and sits at 70% in the polls.
Rio de Janeiro: Wilson Witzel (PSC) faces off against former Rio mayor Eduardo Paes (DEM). Witzel, a nobody with no expression in polls, surprised everyone in the first round and is now expected to win with 53% of the vote.>>20318>Hm, how long you reckon?
Decades or a few centuries ago, but if you follow the chain of events it just infinitely flows back into history.>you make it sound like "the state" is disjoint with whatever constitutes "the current", because how could the current be so against the state if the former elects the latter
By the "current" I don't mean the population's political wishes but wider societal trends. Think of the impacts urbanization has on social relations and organization: there's little a government can do to stop them, as they're more or less "natural" social results of an economic process. Likewise, think of situations which lead elites to act in a certain way and thus create a completely new and unexpected situation with different behavioral incentives.
I don't mean that economics and technology always determine societal organisation and cultural developments (oftentimes, it's the reverse), nor that there's no social engineering going on, but I think you get it.>Maybe what you mean is more skilfully disguised, more devious, less crass and overt.
Yeah, that's what I meant.