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Weather Autism Bernd 04/19/2018 (Thu) 20:11:13 [Preview] No. 16071
Old thread is on auto-säge. It's already very hot in Europe and it's just April.

Bernd 04/19/2018 (Thu) 20:25:56 [Preview] No.16073 del
Meanwhile lots of snow in the Midwest and Canada.

Bernd 04/20/2018 (Fri) 01:43:30 [Preview] No.16087 del
It was 28°C here earlier today, I just want muh wind and rain back.

Bernd 04/20/2018 (Fri) 05:09:34 [Preview] No.16090 del
And your snow.

Bernd 09/17/2018 (Mon) 22:35:27 [Preview] No.19345 del
I will be monitoring this system predicted by most models I check

Bernd 09/17/2018 (Mon) 22:37:42 [Preview] No.19346 del
oh no I will have to upload one by one

Bernd 09/17/2018 (Mon) 22:46:08 [Preview] No.19347 del
fuck this shit
I was gonna convert it to webm but it looks terrible because of compression

Bernd 09/17/2018 (Mon) 22:59:06 [Preview] No.19348 del
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actually this doesn't look too bad

Bernd 09/18/2018 (Tue) 05:24:29 [Preview] No.19354 del
What are we looking at? Sicily?

Bernd 09/18/2018 (Tue) 16:53:28 [Preview] No.19374 del
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I think this model overshoots a bit, but models in general still predict something

Bernd 09/18/2018 (Tue) 17:25:43 [Preview] No.19376 del
So it's still undecided what direction the cyclone will take and if it will strengthen more.

Bernd 09/18/2018 (Tue) 18:22:34 [Preview] No.19377 del
Yep, right now it's more a sign to keep an eye on the situation.

Bernd 09/18/2018 (Tue) 18:32:42 [Preview] No.19378 del
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Note that models have different resolution, to model small-scale systems they need to do some interpolation and simplification in dynamics, and are therefore generally better at predicting movement of systems than self-driven development.

Bernd 09/18/2018 (Tue) 21:36:16 [Preview] No.19388 del
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Why modern meteorology is so complex and interesting, but weather forecasts are still shit and full of errors?

Bernd 09/19/2018 (Wed) 10:59:02 [Preview] No.19392 del
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Weather is a chaotic system; errors grow exponentially with time. There is no workaround around this unfortunately, even just thermodynamic fluctuations will ruin the situation, it's against the laws of physics to deterministically predict it.

But one can predict the randomisation time of the system (Lyapunov exponents), and for weather in general it's a couple of days in the tropics, and about two weeks in temperate regions. But again, it depends on what kind of system you're observing, smaller systems randomise faster. So if it's impossible to predict where exactly storms will develop next day (only that they will in the region), you can predict how a storm will develop for a couple hours ahead, but meanwhile large systems like weather fronts can be propagated with quite the accuracy week or more ahead. Rossby waves in jet stream can be predicted for a whole month ahead.

Recent development; this grew over night. Storms started coalescing into one single mass around midnight.

Bernd 09/19/2018 (Wed) 15:25:09 [Preview] No.19394 del
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Current situation and ARPEGE model forecast. Convection has moved out of the centre, but the system isn't strong enough (yet) to develop a structure.

Bernd 09/19/2018 (Wed) 15:51:45 [Preview] No.19395 del
We're getting fucking rekt by up to 100mph winds here too:
>tfw fell for the American meme of naming storms

Bernd 09/19/2018 (Wed) 16:01:24 [Preview] No.19396 del
Pls tell me it's short for Allison or something.

Bernd 09/19/2018 (Wed) 16:04:57 [Preview] No.19398 del

it's actually an Australian meme, and everyone laughed at that lad until some Americans picked it up 50 years later

Bernd 09/19/2018 (Wed) 16:24:21 [Preview] No.19399 del
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t. infidel

Bernd 09/19/2018 (Wed) 17:18:36 [Preview] No.19400 del
H-haha, Britain is so cucked!

t. robbed and conned by his govt and their lackeys on daily basis

Bernd 09/19/2018 (Wed) 20:42:56 [Preview] No.19404 del
>t. robbed and conned by his govt and their lackeys on daily basis
Don't feel too bad about it, that happens no matter what country you live in. Life becomes easier if you stop caring about politics and begin to appreciate simpler things.

Bernd 09/19/2018 (Wed) 21:02:01 [Preview] No.19406 del
Yeah, I'm doing that 'bout over a decade now. If you think I write about politics a lot, it's don't compared how much I was into these things. What I wrote in the previous post was a joke.

Bernd 09/20/2018 (Thu) 07:52:23 [Preview] No.19417 del
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boi is spinning now, this means it has its own pressure field (good)

cold front from systems further north should reach Tyrrhenian Sea by Saturday, until then the cyclone is free to develop

Bernd 09/21/2018 (Fri) 22:37:57 [Preview] No.19448 del
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still going, but it will be terminated when the cold front reaches it

Bernd 09/22/2018 (Sat) 06:09:45 [Preview] No.19450 del
When is it expected?

Bernd 09/22/2018 (Sat) 16:18:06 [Preview] No.19477 del
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Blown away during this day. You can still see remnants of the storm system moving over Tunisia though.

Bernd 09/22/2018 (Sat) 16:21:34 [Preview] No.19478 del

I look at this gif and see that these cloud waves easily go over Alps, but I've thought that mountains restrict air movement.

Bernd 09/22/2018 (Sat) 16:39:36 [Preview] No.19479 del
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They do. But Slovenia will educate us I'm sure.

Bernd 09/22/2018 (Sat) 17:10:39 [Preview] No.19480 del
those are high level clouds you see here. they move over the mountains and don't give a fuck. but if you looked at ground measurements (generally temperature, pressure) you'd see a sharp border.

Bernd 09/22/2018 (Sat) 18:22:15 [Preview] No.19481 del
tunisia is flooding now.

Bernd 09/24/2018 (Mon) 18:39:55 [Preview] No.19537 del
Just from the picture I first thought that's sand.

Bernd 09/24/2018 (Mon) 23:11:14 [Preview] No.19541 del
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expected next friday

Bernd 09/25/2018 (Tue) 05:34:31 [Preview] No.19543 del
Are air pressure levels deciding factors where the cyclone moves to?

Bernd 09/25/2018 (Tue) 07:23:57 [Preview] No.19544 del
In a way, yes. If there's a non-tropical low nearby, the cyclone will be pulled there. Conversely, a high will repel it. If you have two tropical cyclones next to each other, they will both be pulled towards each other – that's called Fujiwara interaction and looks a bit like orbits in astronomy. But majority of movement comes from being steered by global circulation (trade winds and westerlies), and beta effect (a consequence of varying Coriolis effect with latitude – this in effect means Coriolis force will be different on northern and southern side of the cyclone, resulting in a net poleward pull).

Bernd 09/25/2018 (Tue) 19:05:24 [Preview] No.19561 del
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Big if true

Bernd 09/25/2018 (Tue) 19:28:14 [Preview] No.19562 del
But that little air pressure difference around the cyclone won't make a difference.
>If you have two tropical cyclones next to each other, they will both be pulled towards each other – that's called Fujiwara interaction and looks a bit like orbits in astronomy.
I remember this, you posted one or one close to it in the previous thread.

Bernd 09/26/2018 (Wed) 09:35:12 [Preview] No.19576 del
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big if true

Bernd 09/26/2018 (Wed) 10:11:27 [Preview] No.19577 del
Also I've measured (sea surface normalised) air pressure of 1041mbar today. National weather agency reports that last time it was aboove 1040mbar during autumn was in 1953.

Bernd 09/27/2018 (Thu) 20:07:39 [Preview] No.19620 del
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It's starting.

Bernd 09/27/2018 (Thu) 20:26:29 [Preview] No.19622 del
What's the name of the cyclone? Hans or Fritz?

Bernd 09/27/2018 (Thu) 20:31:31 [Preview] No.19623 del
Greeks are pushing Zorbas but a bunch of autists that are extremely overhyping this are throwing a tantrum over their namelist not being respected (Cindy).

Bernd 09/28/2018 (Fri) 21:33:13 [Preview] No.19645 del
so no refugee boats for a while?

Bernd 09/29/2018 (Sat) 06:27:21 [Preview] No.19646 del
In that part of the Mediterranean.

Bernd 10/03/2018 (Wed) 16:20:40 [Preview] No.19718 del
So, what happened with that cyclone?

Bernd 10/27/2018 (Sat) 23:03:20 [Preview] No.20321 del
Eastern Saudi Arabia has been struck. It appears to have reached the Persian Gulf.

Bernd 11/04/2018 (Sun) 07:32:00 [Preview] No.20437 del
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OMSZ (the Hungarian meteorology service) said they measured record temperature on the Day of the Dead (1st November). It was 92 years ago that the weather was this warm (now 25.8, in 1926 24,9).

In Hungarian, just for the record:

Bernd 11/04/2018 (Sun) 09:19:53 [Preview] No.20439 del
heatenings, at least I already managed to touch snow last week, but it fucked with the trees because they still had leaves.

Bernd 11/04/2018 (Sun) 11:23:17 [Preview] No.20440 del
Some of the highest bumps here got some snow as well, I heard. But here I am with opened window, sitting in a boxer and sweating like a hound dog. Maybe it's the hot paprika in my chicken soup.

Bernd 01/05/2019 (Sat) 16:36:07 [Preview] No.22074 del
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Cold wind from the North Pole brought snow over Europe. Feels comfy man.

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