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wetter threda Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 16:39:44 [Preview] No. 9926
anyone else following weather and shit?

current proceedings: Irma is now cat 5, expected to trail just north of Greater Antilles and south of Florida. Jose following close by in similar track. hoping for a nice show and responsible damage control in affected parts Haiti get your shit together

websites for tracking tropical cyclones:
<but I don't understand technical terms and shit, I need something for keins

general websites:
<for keins

Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 16:42:30 [Preview] No. 9928 del
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma
is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to
remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple
of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 931 mb (27.50 inches).

Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 17:00:18 [Preview] No. 9929 del
I hope they send them solar powered audiobibles again.

Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 19:18:04 [Preview] No. 9931 del
(73.34 KB 1200x900 DI-p3ckVoAEfaTm.jpg)
inside the eye photo from NOAA's hurricane hunters

Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 19:41:36 [Preview] No. 9932 del
Additional note: September is unofficial start of Mediterranean basin cyclone season. No meteorological agency specifically monitors development of those storms; however there are several amateur stormchasers who do so, occasionally meteorologists also write reports after analysing measured data. Occasionally individual storms develop structure and intensity that makes them comparable to small hurricanes; however it is not a common occurrence due to 1) strong baroclinic effects which favour development of frontal rather than radial systems 2) lower sea surface temperatures allowing explosive warm-core cyclogenesis only in cases of cold air intrusions into upper troposphere (explaining the peak season September-December). I've closely followed development of two such systems over the last years; first made landfall on Sicily (and Malta) in early November 2014, second made landfall on Sardinia and Corsica in early October 2015.

Sites that will likely report are:
AccuWeather may report as systems develop as well.
and I intend to closely monitor the area as well. So far the summer has been favourable when it comes to warming up the sea; we'll see how the conditions develops further.

Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 22:46:23 [Preview] No. 9933 del
>Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h)
>The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches).
Seems to be going for high score. fug

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 07:08:02 [Preview] No. 9934 del

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 08:30:06 [Preview] No. 9935 del

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 09:18:50 [Preview] No. 9936 del
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft



Considering she keeps going over sea with temperatures 30°C or higher, she could stay cat 5 all the way to Florida.

St. Martin (the island she's about to pass) reports sustained winds 120kt gusts to 140kt.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 10:08:54 [Preview] No. 9937 del
Where will the storm end? Will it go to washington?

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 13:43:44 [Preview] No. 9938 del
I live in Florida near the south-east coast. If I take pictures of shit outside, should I post it in this thread, or make my own thread? Hurricane won't hit until around Saturday or something.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 15:29:49 [Preview] No. 9939 del
Dude why are you not evacuating?

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:26:27 [Preview] No. 9940 del
Wherever you want to post those pictures. It fits in here but if you find opening a new thread more proper just do that. We're interested in whatever you can post.

Why tho?

At Storm's End.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:40:43 [Preview] No. 9944 del
bost pics

I should probably locate livestreams a lot of folks are covering this but it's hard to find quality cams

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:47:04 [Preview] No. 9945 del
I think it's too early to say. Models agree that it will reach southern tip of Florida but the path from there on is unclear. In any case there's a cold front over eastern US right now; this means barotropic discontinuity in the atmosphere; this means wind direction varies wildly on both sides of the front and with height so when Irma hits the front it will start ripping her apart, lowering intensity no matter where she gets deflected.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:50:08 [Preview] No. 9948 del
Personally I'd say Georgia and South Carolina could get hit as well; but if she gets deflected further eastwards it's not very likely to slam on coast further north; she should instead merge into the front and dissipate over the Atlantic.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:52:09 [Preview] No. 9949 del
pls stay safe

Also site I sometimes check on storms

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 18:20:42 [Preview] No. 9955 del
You do not evacuate unless you live close to the beach really. The barrier islands that will take most of that damage.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 19:10:52 [Preview] No. 9958 del
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near
latitude 18.5 North, longitude 64.7 West. Irma is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will continue to move
over portions of the Virgin Islands during the next couple of
hours, pass near or just north of Puerto Rico this afternoon or
tonight, pass near or just north of the coast of the Dominican
Republic Thursday, and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern
Bahamas late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
An unofficial observation on Buck Island in the U.S. Virgin Islands
has recently reported sutained winds of 106 mph (171 km/h) with a
gust to 131 mph (211 km/h).

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance
datat is 920 mb (27.17 inches).

based on data I'd say she reached her peak. Still, keeping those stats for a whole day and possibly for one more is pretty big.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 20:05:33 [Preview] No. 9973 del
It's the aftermath that is the biggest danger, look at the most recent one harvey

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 20:41:06 [Preview] No. 10003 del
(256.01 KB 700x425 tesis_20170906.png)
(8.92 KB 751x471 flares.png)
Thread about all types of weather, right?

So, about cosmic weather. We experience biggest solar flare in 12 years, it slowly happens for few days and grows. It is pretty powerful, so even problems with electronic devices are expected.

Strange thing that it happened at the minimum peak of solar cycle, that isn't common.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 20:54:31 [Preview] No. 10005 del
(25.79 KB 620x349 Sunspots on 5 Sep.jpg)
Well that's one big sunspot. (2673 is the one that caused the flare) But otherwise, the Sun is pretty clear.
Also, it needs to be taken in a context – Sun has been really quiet recently and flares like this seem to be more common in historical records.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:19:56 [Preview] No. 10008 del
>Sun has been really quiet recently and flares like this seem to be more common in historical records.

Sources in internet say that only 5 flares were more powerful for last 20 years. So, it is rather uncommon thing, although not exceptional.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:26:29 [Preview] No. 10010 del
Yep but I'm stating that last two cycles were weak comparable to last two centuries, based on aurora sightings and sunspot counts.
There was a big one at the peak of current cycle iirc, but on the other side so it missed Earth.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:29:10 [Preview] No. 10011 del
In any case I'm waiting for NASA for aurora forecasts. For tonight geomagnetic storm watch is issued for the previous smaller flare 2 days ago. I don't know how to predict this activity but I know it's not just big eruption = big activity 2 days later, dispersal and other things are involved as well.

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:34:45 [Preview] No. 10012 del
We have Sun lab in FIAN, it looks like pretty serious organisation. Their English page is partially dead though, but they have graphs and predictions.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:56:16 [Preview] No. 10013 del
recording of beach cam getting rekt.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=dA5qYrboTUE [Embed]

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 22:15:00 [Preview] No. 10014 del
Remembered one could get nice views from the ISS stream when it passes over.
For current location of the ISS:
Official livestream:

recording from Sep 5

Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 23:55:08 [Preview] No. 10019 del
(67.03 KB 400x282 we hungry dawg.jpg)
We finna get paid.

Bernd 09/07/2017 (Thu) 19:21:24 [Preview] No. 10060 del

Bernd 09/07/2017 (Thu) 19:24:42 [Preview] No. 10062 del
(27.46 KB 280x412 1424284421001.jpg)
Wtf? Why the fuck fucks it up the link?

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 06:19:15 [Preview] No. 10074 del
lel I think the code for this website is dudded

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 06:19:31 [Preview] No. 10075 del
might make sense to file a bug report

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 14:31:55 [Preview] No. 10077 del
(1.10 KB 100x100 littelbernd.gif)
Put it in a txt

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 15:02:52 [Preview] No. 10078 del
(1.29 MB 1340x780 windmap.png)
Doesn't matter. It's just the hurricane's windmap area. You can adjust the globe here >>10060 into position.

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 16:53:34 [Preview] No. 10079 del
(12.15 KB 640x480 planetary-k-index.gif)
(52.67 KB 940x562 G4_Alert.jpg)
Update for space weather, there should be decent activity today but I don't see it exceptionally far south on the forecast.
Animation is on http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 17:00:17 [Preview] No. 10080 del
>that clear cold front over the Atlantic
Let's see how far Irma gets. Usually when hurricanes hit a front they're ripped apart and absorbed into the front. She might be able to curve over Florida, but I'd say she's not going any further. The same front should also absorb Jose.
If conditions are favourable the energy will not dissipate but will instead be absorbed into the front. Let's see how the front will show up on prognosis models for Europe once this happens.

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 20:31:06 [Preview] No. 10085 del
It's gonna be pretty funny if all of this hulabaloo was for naught.

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:39:07 [Preview] No. 10087 del
(215.43 KB 1053x600 tccapture.gif)
Oh well. I think she's gonna smash Florida pretty hard, and that's it.

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:43:08 [Preview] No. 10088 del
Also, wtf. Jose is cat 4 now too?
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast tonight
through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will
pass close or just east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down,
could occur during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is
expected after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:44:21 [Preview] No. 10089 del
I think my state (Ohio) got hit by two different limbs of Harvey, and some of the projections had it heading straight for us. It's figuratively the worst. Making September all unseasonably cold and rainy.
I think Florida really is the anus of our country and God is filming an anal devastation porno.

Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:48:26 [Preview] No. 10090 del
Yep, I haven't checked the entire development, but that squall line looks like it has munched up Harvey already.

Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 00:34:15 [Preview] No. 10092 del
People are pissed because they're not letting certain people into shelters in Florida. Basically, they're checking ID's and if you're a sex offender you're not allowed in, if you have warrant out for your arrest, they arrest you (makes sense), I saw something about unpaid parking tickets but I'm not sure what they would do in that situation. Seems like a small thing to make you face the wild for, also the courts are most definitely not open for you to go pay it. Would you just assault the officer to get some shelter in that case?

Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 07:14:09 [Preview] No. 10093 del
(1.31 MB 1109x830 windmap2.png)

Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 08:01:22 [Preview] No. 10094 del
>so many normies scared

Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 17:45:18 [Preview] No. 10096 del
(223.23 KB 1053x600 tccapture.gif)
it begins

Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 17:47:10 [Preview] No. 10098 del
(196.37 KB 900x665 two_atl_2d0.png)
>notices storm off coast of Africa
OwO what's this?

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 06:45:42 [Preview] No. 10130 del
(1.57 MB 1399x726 windmap3.png)
Will it miss Florida?

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 08:15:25 [Preview] No. 10144 del
>Will it miss Florida?

If it wouldn't, we will miss Florida.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 08:54:32 [Preview] No. 10150 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=OTlMLxyQmfI [Embed]

live stream of Irma.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 09:03:29 [Preview] No. 10153 del
(30.49 KB 386x368 islamorada-map_web.jpg)
If I heard the guy right he says he is here, Islamorada. But he just said the storm is kind of skirting them, they have power, street lights are running. Seems like if it had hit during high tide it would have been worse.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 11:43:03 [Preview] No. 10175 del
Watching this stream, went online 10 min. ago

https://youtube.com/watch?v=tQ2iMApF-0o [Embed]

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 13:32:20 [Preview] No. 10187 del
(233.69 KB 600x1032 florida.png)
The rain noise is cozy, but why is it only in the left channel?

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 16:17:31 [Preview] No. 10207 del
it's probably mono recorded and shitty software doesn't stream it through both channels

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 16:20:09 [Preview] No. 10208 del
oh btw, I'm looking at some longer range spaghetti models; Jose is going to interact with the cold front but won't be absorbed by it; this will cause it to make a loop and then move into indeterminate direction. Judging by sea surface temperatures direct hit on Washington DC or NYC is possible too.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:09:28 [Preview] No. 10224 del
(730.48 KB 836x508 windmap4.png)
It's really on them now.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:29:33 [Preview] No. 10230 del

LIVE Two Friends Roof Top Key West
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc [Embed]

Mallory Square Key West Florida
https://youtube.com/watch?v=OUhXfVNW-Jg [Embed]

LIVE Hurricane Irma Florida Keys Super Stream
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZPWhoLbbhkQ [Embed]

LIVE Southern Most Beach Resort Beach & Pier
https://youtube.com/watch?v=eNCwj35OwmIzz [Embed]

Southern most point live webcam
https://youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ [Embed]

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:31:44 [Preview] No. 10231 del

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:48:24 [Preview] No. 10232 del
Looting happening already

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:52:51 [Preview] No. 10233 del
The most destroying force of nature is man.
Come to khantube btw. There's the link in another thread.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:53:26 [Preview] No. 10234 del
Live cam Naples Florida
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZHvs1MdF04c [Embed]

boats being beached
https://youtube.com/watch?v=mz2r0MGBa04 [Embed]

Multiple cranes have collapsed in Miami.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:55:24 [Preview] No. 10235 del

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:56:55 [Preview] No. 10236 del
NBC2 stream

https://youtube.com/watch?v=_egSTyWb1gk [Embed]

wind speed up to 120 mph /200 km/h at the eye wall moving to Ft, Myers reported

If the wind doesn't get faster than that they can consider themselves happy.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:58:59 [Preview] No. 10237 del
We're following exactly that on KhanTube. Our Slovenbernd has a channel there.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 19:12:37 [Preview] No. 10238 del
(9.83 MB 640x360 152639.mp4)
exceedingly rare footage of cyclone eye passing island of Linosa, Strait of Sicily

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 19:18:33 [Preview] No. 10239 del
(388.13 KB 1544x1024 zorb.jpg)
Use picrel, problems werent.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:11:55 [Preview] No. 10244 del
Now Marco Island. Naples soon.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:42:48 [Preview] No. 10246 del
(301.19 KB 1000x800 675.jpg)
Those looters all got arrested

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:49:02 [Preview] No. 10247 del
God job, coppers.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:56:13 [Preview] No. 10249 del
(62.38 KB 940x562 Slide1_36.JPG)
space weather: there was another big solar eruption, on the side of the disc viewed from Earth

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:56:31 [Preview] No. 10250 del
(70.01 KB 640x480 14876837_G.jpg)
(64.43 KB 640x360 14876836_G.jpg)
(69.61 KB 960x720 14876858_G.jpg)
(46.65 KB 640x480 14876880_G.jpg)
>Marco Island

Everything went better than expected

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:04:50 [Preview] No. 10253 del
That's not much. We have similar damage just from normal storms every year few times. And these parts are fairly calm.

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:10:51 [Preview] No. 10256 del
(1.97 MB 320x180 1425678492161.gif)
it's like there is justice on this world after all

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:15:23 [Preview] No. 10257 del
but could you provide proofs?

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:23:35 [Preview] No. 10259 del
sample meteorological readings from when a (small) tropical storm passes straight over

Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 22:34:42 [Preview] No. 10264 del
Yep. Just normal wind damage. The poles for electricity cables are also still standing. But now after the eye of the hurricane has passed the backside of the circulating storm will press the water inwards, so floods may still happen.

Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 04:53:47 [Preview] No. 10271 del
Last night in Naples happened. They reported about 15-30 cm of water on some avenue or such.

Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 05:11:21 [Preview] No. 10273 del
Cuba had it worse of course. The hurricane lost much power until it reached Florida.

Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 06:40:37 [Preview] No. 10274 del
>15-30 cm of water

Ah , that's nothing.

>Cuba had it worse

Yes, but I think overall Irma did less damage than feared before.

Only really hard hit was on that French-Dutch island where about 70% of all structures were damaged.

Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 12:09:11 [Preview] No. 10277 del
ok time for jose next

Bernd 09/17/2017 (Sun) 17:46:02 [Preview] No. 10505 del
Hurricane updates:

Jose is still spinning out and it doesn't look like he'll make landfall anywhere, though trajectory leads him pretty close to NY.

Maria is gaining strength rapidly, expected to take a slightly more southern path through the Lesser Antilles, and then hit Puerto Rico or Hispaniola.

Mediterranean updates:
due to recent weather development the western Mediterranean basin has cooled down, and it's unlikely to develop any interesting storms this season. It's still possible in the basin between Sicily and Tripolitania, I'd say.

Bernd 09/18/2017 (Mon) 05:11:42 [Preview] No. 10510 del
>the western Mediterranean basin has cooled down, and it's unlikely to develop any interesting storms this season.
Disappointing. Some people will have it easier with their illegal immigration.

Bernd 09/18/2017 (Mon) 20:29:47 [Preview] No. 10532 del
(195.77 KB 1053x600 tccapture.gif)
Maria close to cat 4 strength near Martinique

Bernd 09/18/2017 (Mon) 20:39:23 [Preview] No. 10533 del
Jesus F. Christ, looking at forecast paths it's possible we'll see Jose and Maria merging in the Atlantic.

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 05:11:22 [Preview] No. 10537 del
Lucky Pirates! Gold has no Hurricanes. The Lesser Antilles with all four nations nesting there is a good place in the beginning to pick up some crew, ships and loot.

Jesus will be the name after their merging?

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 06:59:38 [Preview] No. 10541 del
(7.03 MB 1120x480 rb-animated.gif)
that went straight over dominica

prepare for the rapture lads

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 17:32:36 [Preview] No. 10549 del
>Lucky Pirates! Gold has no Hurricanes.

At least it had strong wind that could stop your ship or even move it to shoal

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 17:45:32 [Preview] No. 10551 del
Zigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzag. From west to east.

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 18:30:33 [Preview] No. 10552 del
What happens when two hurricanes merge? The new one will be stronger? Or just the one in higher category absorbs the lower one? Or the slower slows the faster down?

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 19:46:14 [Preview] No. 10554 del
Intensity of tropical cyclones comes from surface properties, so the merger will result in a storm that is bigger at first but no more intense and it will dissipate into normal size. Most examples of historical mergers happened in late phases so there's not much sample. But it has already happened twice this season on the Pacific; Noru ate Kulap and explosively intensified afterwards, and Nesat and Haitang merged over land in western Pacific; and in eastern Pacific there was also interaction of Hilary with Irwin. Also, they orbit each other for a while, often the orbits aren't bound so they don't merge and just pass each other. But that also means you can get pretty unusual trajectories.

Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 23:29:02 [Preview] No. 10557 del
Puerto Rico cat 5 landfall expected in about 16 hours


Bernd 09/20/2017 (Wed) 05:33:18 [Preview] No. 10563 del
(1.88 MB 1762x1023 tango.png)
Let me reply with a picrel.

Other kind of landfall habbened in Mexico I think yesterday or so.

Bernd 09/21/2017 (Thu) 09:55:30 [Preview] No. 10584 del
nice pics

Bernd 09/21/2017 (Thu) 15:51:27 [Preview] No. 10586 del
Imagine jumping into it with a parachute.

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