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wetter threda Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 16:39:44 [Preview] No. 9926
anyone else following weather and shit?

current proceedings: Irma is now cat 5, expected to trail just north of Greater Antilles and south of Florida. Jose following close by in similar track. hoping for a nice show and responsible damage control in affected parts Haiti get your shit together

websites for tracking tropical cyclones:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
<but I don't understand technical terms and shit, I need something for keins
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane

general websites:
https://www.ecmwf.int/
http://en.sat24.com/
http://www.noaa.gov/
<for keins
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news


Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 16:42:30 [Preview] No. 9928 del
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 58.4 West. Irma is moving toward
the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest
tonight. On the forecast track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma
is forecast to move over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to
remain a powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple
of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 931 mb (27.50 inches).


Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 17:00:18 [Preview] No. 9929 del
I hope they send them solar powered audiobibles again.


Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 19:18:04 [Preview] No. 9931 del
(73.34 KB 1200x900 DI-p3ckVoAEfaTm.jpg)
inside the eye photo from NOAA's hurricane hunters


Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 19:41:36 [Preview] No. 9932 del
Additional note: September is unofficial start of Mediterranean basin cyclone season. No meteorological agency specifically monitors development of those storms; however there are several amateur stormchasers who do so, occasionally meteorologists also write reports after analysing measured data. Occasionally individual storms develop structure and intensity that makes them comparable to small hurricanes; however it is not a common occurrence due to 1) strong baroclinic effects which favour development of frontal rather than radial systems 2) lower sea surface temperatures allowing explosive warm-core cyclogenesis only in cases of cold air intrusions into upper troposphere (explaining the peak season September-December). I've closely followed development of two such systems over the last years; first made landfall on Sicily (and Malta) in early November 2014, second made landfall on Sardinia and Corsica in early October 2015.

Sites that will likely report are:
https://watchers.news/category/severe-weather/
http://www.severe-weather.eu/
AccuWeather may report as systems develop as well.
and I intend to closely monitor the area as well. So far the summer has been favourable when it comes to warming up the sea; we'll see how the conditions develops further.


Bernd 09/05/2017 (Tue) 22:46:23 [Preview] No. 9933 del
>>9932
>Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h)
>The estimated minimum central pressure is 926 mb (27.35 inches).
Seems to be going for high score. fug


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 07:08:02 [Preview] No. 9934 del
test


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 08:30:06 [Preview] No. 9935 del
test


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 09:18:50 [Preview] No. 9936 del
STORM SURGE: [...]
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft

rip

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES

Considering she keeps going over sea with temperatures 30°C or higher, she could stay cat 5 all the way to Florida.

St. Martin (the island she's about to pass) reports sustained winds 120kt gusts to 140kt.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 10:08:54 [Preview] No. 9937 del
Where will the storm end? Will it go to washington?


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 13:43:44 [Preview] No. 9938 del
I live in Florida near the south-east coast. If I take pictures of shit outside, should I post it in this thread, or make my own thread? Hurricane won't hit until around Saturday or something.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 15:29:49 [Preview] No. 9939 del
>>9938
Dude why are you not evacuating?


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:26:27 [Preview] No. 9940 del
>>9938
Wherever you want to post those pictures. It fits in here but if you find opening a new thread more proper just do that. We're interested in whatever you can post.

>>9934
>>9935
Why tho?

>>9937
At Storm's End.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:40:43 [Preview] No. 9944 del
>>9938
bost pics

I should probably locate livestreams a lot of folks are covering this but it's hard to find quality cams


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:47:04 [Preview] No. 9945 del
>>9937
I think it's too early to say. Models agree that it will reach southern tip of Florida but the path from there on is unclear. In any case there's a cold front over eastern US right now; this means barotropic discontinuity in the atmosphere; this means wind direction varies wildly on both sides of the front and with height so when Irma hits the front it will start ripping her apart, lowering intensity no matter where she gets deflected.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:50:08 [Preview] No. 9948 del
Personally I'd say Georgia and South Carolina could get hit as well; but if she gets deflected further eastwards it's not very likely to slam on coast further north; she should instead merge into the front and dissipate over the Atlantic.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 16:52:09 [Preview] No. 9949 del
>>9938
pls stay safe

Also site I sometimes check on storms
blitzortung.org


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 18:20:42 [Preview] No. 9955 del
>>9939
You do not evacuate unless you live close to the beach really. The barrier islands that will take most of that damage.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 19:10:52 [Preview] No. 9958 del
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near
latitude 18.5 North, longitude 64.7 West. Irma is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will continue to move
over portions of the Virgin Islands during the next couple of
hours, pass near or just north of Puerto Rico this afternoon or
tonight, pass near or just north of the coast of the Dominican
Republic Thursday, and be near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern
Bahamas late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.
An unofficial observation on Buck Island in the U.S. Virgin Islands
has recently reported sutained winds of 106 mph (171 km/h) with a
gust to 131 mph (211 km/h).

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The latest estimated minimum central pressure from reconnaissance
datat is 920 mb (27.17 inches).


based on data I'd say she reached her peak. Still, keeping those stats for a whole day and possibly for one more is pretty big.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 20:05:33 [Preview] No. 9973 del
>>9955
It's the aftermath that is the biggest danger, look at the most recent one harvey


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 20:41:06 [Preview] No. 10003 del
(256.01 KB 700x425 tesis_20170906.png)
(8.92 KB 751x471 flares.png)
Thread about all types of weather, right?

So, about cosmic weather. We experience biggest solar flare in 12 years, it slowly happens for few days and grows. It is pretty powerful, so even problems with electronic devices are expected.

Strange thing that it happened at the minimum peak of solar cycle, that isn't common.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 20:54:31 [Preview] No. 10005 del
(25.79 KB 620x349 Sunspots on 5 Sep.jpg)
>>10003
Well that's one big sunspot. (2673 is the one that caused the flare) But otherwise, the Sun is pretty clear.
Also, it needs to be taken in a context – Sun has been really quiet recently and flares like this seem to be more common in historical records.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:19:56 [Preview] No. 10008 del
>>10005
>Sun has been really quiet recently and flares like this seem to be more common in historical records.

Sources in internet say that only 5 flares were more powerful for last 20 years. So, it is rather uncommon thing, although not exceptional.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:26:29 [Preview] No. 10010 del
>>10008
Yep but I'm stating that last two cycles were weak comparable to last two centuries, based on aurora sightings and sunspot counts.
There was a big one at the peak of current cycle iirc, but on the other side so it missed Earth.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:29:10 [Preview] No. 10011 del
In any case I'm waiting for NASA for aurora forecasts. For tonight geomagnetic storm watch is issued for the previous smaller flare 2 days ago. I don't know how to predict this activity but I know it's not just big eruption = big activity 2 days later, dispersal and other things are involved as well.


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:34:45 [Preview] No. 10012 del
>>10011
We have Sun lab in FIAN, it looks like pretty serious organisation. Their English page is partially dead though, but they have graphs and predictions.

http://tesis.lebedev.ru/en/forecast_activity.html
http://tesis.lebedev.ru/en/magnetic_storms.html


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 21:56:16 [Preview] No. 10013 del
recording of beach cam getting rekt.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=dA5qYrboTUE [Embed]


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 22:15:00 [Preview] No. 10014 del
Remembered one could get nice views from the ISS stream when it passes over.
For current location of the ISS:
http://iss.astroviewer.net/
Official livestream:
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/live-iss-stream

recording from Sep 5
https://archive.org/details/ISS-Pass-Over-Hurricane-Irma-Sep-5-2017


Bernd 09/06/2017 (Wed) 23:55:08 [Preview] No. 10019 del
(67.03 KB 400x282 we hungry dawg.jpg)
>>9973
We finna get paid.


Bernd 09/07/2017 (Thu) 19:21:24 [Preview] No. 10060 del


Bernd 09/07/2017 (Thu) 19:24:42 [Preview] No. 10062 del
(27.46 KB 280x412 1424284421001.jpg)
>>10061
Wtf? Why the fuck fucks it up the link?


Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 06:19:15 [Preview] No. 10074 del
lel I think the code for this website is dudded


Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 06:19:31 [Preview] No. 10075 del
might make sense to file a bug report


Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 14:31:55 [Preview] No. 10077 del
(1.10 KB 100x100 littelbernd.gif)
>>10062
Put it in a txt


Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 15:02:52 [Preview] No. 10078 del
(1.29 MB 1340x780 windmap.png)
>>10077
Doesn't matter. It's just the hurricane's windmap area. You can adjust the globe here >>10060 into position.


Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 16:53:34 [Preview] No. 10079 del
(12.15 KB 640x480 planetary-k-index.gif)
(52.67 KB 940x562 G4_Alert.jpg)
>>10003
Update for space weather, there should be decent activity today but I don't see it exceptionally far south on the forecast.
Animation is on http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/


Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 17:00:17 [Preview] No. 10080 del
>>10078
>that clear cold front over the Atlantic
Let's see how far Irma gets. Usually when hurricanes hit a front they're ripped apart and absorbed into the front. She might be able to curve over Florida, but I'd say she's not going any further. The same front should also absorb Jose.
If conditions are favourable the energy will not dissipate but will instead be absorbed into the front. Let's see how the front will show up on prognosis models for Europe once this happens.


Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 20:31:06 [Preview] No. 10085 del
>>10080
It's gonna be pretty funny if all of this hulabaloo was for naught.


Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:39:07 [Preview] No. 10087 del
(215.43 KB 1053x600 tccapture.gif)
>>10085
Oh well. I think she's gonna smash Florida pretty hard, and that's it.


Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:43:08 [Preview] No. 10088 del
Also, wtf. Jose is cat 4 now too?
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located
near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 58.3 West. Jose is moving toward
the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the
northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast tonight
through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will
pass close or just east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down,
could occur during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is
expected after that.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:44:21 [Preview] No. 10089 del
>>10087
I think my state (Ohio) got hit by two different limbs of Harvey, and some of the projections had it heading straight for us. It's figuratively the worst. Making September all unseasonably cold and rainy.
>>10088
I think Florida really is the anus of our country and God is filming an anal devastation porno.


Bernd 09/08/2017 (Fri) 23:48:26 [Preview] No. 10090 del
>>10089
Yep, I haven't checked the entire development, but that squall line looks like it has munched up Harvey already.


Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 00:34:15 [Preview] No. 10092 del
People are pissed because they're not letting certain people into shelters in Florida. Basically, they're checking ID's and if you're a sex offender you're not allowed in, if you have warrant out for your arrest, they arrest you (makes sense), I saw something about unpaid parking tickets but I'm not sure what they would do in that situation. Seems like a small thing to make you face the wild for, also the courts are most definitely not open for you to go pay it. Would you just assault the officer to get some shelter in that case?


Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 07:14:09 [Preview] No. 10093 del
(1.31 MB 1109x830 windmap2.png)


Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 08:01:22 [Preview] No. 10094 del
>so many normies scared


Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 17:45:18 [Preview] No. 10096 del
(223.23 KB 1053x600 tccapture.gif)
it begins


Bernd 09/09/2017 (Sat) 17:47:10 [Preview] No. 10098 del
(196.37 KB 900x665 two_atl_2d0.png)
>notices storm off coast of Africa
OwO what's this?


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 06:45:42 [Preview] No. 10130 del
(1.57 MB 1399x726 windmap3.png)
Will it miss Florida?


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 08:15:25 [Preview] No. 10144 del
>>10130
>Will it miss Florida?

If it wouldn't, we will miss Florida.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 08:54:32 [Preview] No. 10150 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=OTlMLxyQmfI [Embed]

live stream of Irma.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 09:03:29 [Preview] No. 10153 del
(30.49 KB 386x368 islamorada-map_web.jpg)
>>10150
If I heard the guy right he says he is here, Islamorada. But he just said the storm is kind of skirting them, they have power, street lights are running. Seems like if it had hit during high tide it would have been worse.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 11:43:03 [Preview] No. 10175 del
Watching this stream, went online 10 min. ago

https://youtube.com/watch?v=tQ2iMApF-0o [Embed]


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 13:32:20 [Preview] No. 10187 del
(233.69 KB 600x1032 florida.png)
>>10175
The rain noise is cozy, but why is it only in the left channel?


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 16:17:31 [Preview] No. 10207 del
>>10187
it's probably mono recorded and shitty software doesn't stream it through both channels


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 16:20:09 [Preview] No. 10208 del
oh btw, I'm looking at some longer range spaghetti models; Jose is going to interact with the cold front but won't be absorbed by it; this will cause it to make a loop and then move into indeterminate direction. Judging by sea surface temperatures direct hit on Washington DC or NYC is possible too.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:09:28 [Preview] No. 10224 del
(730.48 KB 836x508 windmap4.png)
It's really on them now.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:29:33 [Preview] No. 10230 del
Streams


LIVE Two Friends Roof Top Key West
https://youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc [Embed]


Mallory Square Key West Florida
https://youtube.com/watch?v=OUhXfVNW-Jg [Embed]

LIVE Hurricane Irma Florida Keys Super Stream
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZPWhoLbbhkQ [Embed]

LIVE Southern Most Beach Resort Beach & Pier
https://youtube.com/watch?v=eNCwj35OwmIzz [Embed]

Southern most point live webcam
https://youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ [Embed]


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:31:44 [Preview] No. 10231 del


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:48:24 [Preview] No. 10232 del
Looting happening already


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:52:51 [Preview] No. 10233 del
>>10232
The most destroying force of nature is man.
Come to khantube btw. There's the link in another thread.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:53:26 [Preview] No. 10234 del
Live cam Naples Florida
https://youtube.com/watch?v=ZHvs1MdF04c [Embed]

boats being beached
https://youtube.com/watch?v=mz2r0MGBa04 [Embed]

Multiple cranes have collapsed in Miami.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:55:24 [Preview] No. 10235 del
>>10234
Tough.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:56:55 [Preview] No. 10236 del
NBC2 stream

https://youtube.com/watch?v=_egSTyWb1gk [Embed]

wind speed up to 120 mph /200 km/h at the eye wall moving to Ft, Myers reported

If the wind doesn't get faster than that they can consider themselves happy.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 18:58:59 [Preview] No. 10237 del
>>10236
We're following exactly that on KhanTube. Our Slovenbernd has a channel there.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 19:12:37 [Preview] No. 10238 del
(9.83 MB 640x360 152639.mp4)
exceedingly rare footage of cyclone eye passing island of Linosa, Strait of Sicily


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 19:18:33 [Preview] No. 10239 del
(388.13 KB 1544x1024 zorb.jpg)
>>10238
Use picrel, problems werent.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:11:55 [Preview] No. 10244 del
Now Marco Island. Naples soon.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:42:48 [Preview] No. 10246 del
(301.19 KB 1000x800 675.jpg)
>>10232
Those looters all got arrested


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:49:02 [Preview] No. 10247 del
>>10246
God job, coppers.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:56:13 [Preview] No. 10249 del
(62.38 KB 940x562 Slide1_36.JPG)
space weather: there was another big solar eruption, on the side of the disc viewed from Earth


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 20:56:31 [Preview] No. 10250 del
(70.01 KB 640x480 14876837_G.jpg)
(64.43 KB 640x360 14876836_G.jpg)
(69.61 KB 960x720 14876858_G.jpg)
(46.65 KB 640x480 14876880_G.jpg)
>>10244
>Marco Island

Everything went better than expected


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:04:50 [Preview] No. 10253 del
>>10250
That's not much. We have similar damage just from normal storms every year few times. And these parts are fairly calm.


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:10:51 [Preview] No. 10256 del
(1.97 MB 320x180 1425678492161.gif)
>>10246
it's like there is justice on this world after all


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:15:23 [Preview] No. 10257 del
>>10246
but could you provide proofs?


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 21:23:35 [Preview] No. 10259 del
sample meteorological readings from when a (small) tropical storm passes straight over


Bernd 09/10/2017 (Sun) 22:34:42 [Preview] No. 10264 del
>>10253
Yep. Just normal wind damage. The poles for electricity cables are also still standing. But now after the eye of the hurricane has passed the backside of the circulating storm will press the water inwards, so floods may still happen.


Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 04:53:47 [Preview] No. 10271 del
>>10264
Last night in Naples happened. They reported about 15-30 cm of water on some avenue or such.


Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 05:11:21 [Preview] No. 10273 del
Cuba had it worse of course. The hurricane lost much power until it reached Florida.
Proofs:
https://www.rt.com/news/402770-hurricane-irma-aftermath-cuba/


Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 06:40:37 [Preview] No. 10274 del
>>10271
>15-30 cm of water

Ah , that's nothing.

>Cuba had it worse

Yes, but I think overall Irma did less damage than feared before.

Only really hard hit was on that French-Dutch island where about 70% of all structures were damaged.


Bernd 09/11/2017 (Mon) 12:09:11 [Preview] No. 10277 del
ok time for jose next


Bernd 09/17/2017 (Sun) 17:46:02 [Preview] No. 10505 del
Hurricane updates:

Jose is still spinning out and it doesn't look like he'll make landfall anywhere, though trajectory leads him pretty close to NY.

Maria is gaining strength rapidly, expected to take a slightly more southern path through the Lesser Antilles, and then hit Puerto Rico or Hispaniola.

Mediterranean updates:
due to recent weather development the western Mediterranean basin has cooled down, and it's unlikely to develop any interesting storms this season. It's still possible in the basin between Sicily and Tripolitania, I'd say.


Bernd 09/18/2017 (Mon) 05:11:42 [Preview] No. 10510 del
>>10505
>the western Mediterranean basin has cooled down, and it's unlikely to develop any interesting storms this season.
Disappointing. Some people will have it easier with their illegal immigration.


Bernd 09/18/2017 (Mon) 20:29:47 [Preview] No. 10532 del
(195.77 KB 1053x600 tccapture.gif)
Maria close to cat 4 strength near Martinique


Bernd 09/18/2017 (Mon) 20:39:23 [Preview] No. 10533 del
Jesus F. Christ, looking at forecast paths it's possible we'll see Jose and Maria merging in the Atlantic.


Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 05:11:22 [Preview] No. 10537 del
>>10532
Lucky Pirates! Gold has no Hurricanes. The Lesser Antilles with all four nations nesting there is a good place in the beginning to pick up some crew, ships and loot.

>>10533
Jesus will be the name after their merging?


Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 06:59:38 [Preview] No. 10541 del
(7.03 MB 1120x480 rb-animated.gif)
that went straight over dominica

>>10537
prepare for the rapture lads


Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 17:32:36 [Preview] No. 10549 del
>>10537
>Lucky Pirates! Gold has no Hurricanes.

At least it had strong wind that could stop your ship or even move it to shoal


Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 17:45:32 [Preview] No. 10551 del
>>10549
Zigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzagzigzag. From west to east.


Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 18:30:33 [Preview] No. 10552 del
>>10541
What happens when two hurricanes merge? The new one will be stronger? Or just the one in higher category absorbs the lower one? Or the slower slows the faster down?


Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 19:46:14 [Preview] No. 10554 del
>>10552
Intensity of tropical cyclones comes from surface properties, so the merger will result in a storm that is bigger at first but no more intense and it will dissipate into normal size. Most examples of historical mergers happened in late phases so there's not much sample. But it has already happened twice this season on the Pacific; Noru ate Kulap and explosively intensified afterwards, and Nesat and Haitang merged over land in western Pacific; and in eastern Pacific there was also interaction of Hilary with Irwin. Also, they orbit each other for a while, often the orbits aren't bound so they don't merge and just pass each other. But that also means you can get pretty unusual trajectories.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect


Bernd 09/19/2017 (Tue) 23:29:02 [Preview] No. 10557 del
Puerto Rico cat 5 landfall expected in about 16 hours

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES


Bernd 09/20/2017 (Wed) 05:33:18 [Preview] No. 10563 del
(1.88 MB 1762x1023 tango.png)
>>10554
Let me reply with a picrel.

>>10557
>Landfall
Other kind of landfall habbened in Mexico I think yesterday or so.


Bernd 09/21/2017 (Thu) 09:55:30 [Preview] No. 10584 del
nice pics


Bernd 09/21/2017 (Thu) 15:51:27 [Preview] No. 10586 del
>>10584
Imagine jumping into it with a parachute.


Bernd 09/22/2017 (Fri) 14:08:53 [Preview] No. 10601 del
a little something I didn't notice before, after Irma and Jose Barbuda is now unpopulated


Bernd 09/22/2017 (Fri) 16:56:01 [Preview] No. 10604 del
>>10601
No wonder. Could anyone hold up there in some hole or something?


Bernd 09/22/2017 (Fri) 17:01:35 [Preview] No. 10605 del
>>10601
brutal


Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 01:05:32 [Preview] No. 10635 del
(52.96 KB 1019x712 98fndfd.gif)
Keep an eye on the Great Lakes. Situation is similar to 1996 when a passing cold front exploded into a cyclone over the lakes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Lake_Huron_cyclone
Pic related is 48 hour prognosis. From there on, it's showtime.


Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 01:09:37 [Preview] No. 10636 del
Tho, comparing surface temperatures, it's a bit colder still.


Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 06:22:20 [Preview] No. 10638 del
>>10636
20+ water temp. Meanwhile I'm sitting here in 15.


Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 06:36:44 [Preview] No. 10639 del
>>10638
Erm. 15 air temp.


Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 08:31:00 [Preview] No. 10647 del
>>10638
oirish expat said it was 29 in the evening yesterday-


Bernd 09/24/2017 (Sun) 08:31:27 [Preview] No. 10648 del
>>10647
in chicongo, fyi


Bernd 10/04/2017 (Wed) 20:50:55 [Preview] No. 10896 del
Currently in Mediterranean basin: storm between Tunisia and Sicily, it's a persistent convective feature, but there's not enough energy for it to evolve and become self-organised.

I kinda wish I could create a larger file for full development but even making this gif took quite some time


Bernd 10/04/2017 (Wed) 21:15:41 [Preview] No. 10900 del
(490.23 KB 845x615 sat24.com.webm)


Bernd 10/05/2017 (Thu) 05:41:26 [Preview] No. 10905 del
>>10900
We'll get some sprinkling from that shit coming from the NW. We usually does. Now everything is grey. I could go on with a bit more sunny weather.


Bernd 10/10/2017 (Tue) 23:16:53 [Preview] No. 11088 del
Ophelia is going for Portugal, joj


Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 18:08:54 [Preview] No. 11094 del
Ophelia looks really nice, but it would seem she's still short of cat 1 intensity


Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 18:32:19 [Preview] No. 11095 del
Meanwhile, stable and warm weather over continental Europe. The last days of summer, almost.


Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 18:55:05 [Preview] No. 11097 del
>>11095
We call that the "summer of crones".


Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 19:12:45 [Preview] No. 11098 del
>>11097
sames, babje polětje


Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 19:47:45 [Preview] No. 11099 del
>>11098
Yeah, it is "бабье лето" (babje leto).


Bernd 10/11/2017 (Wed) 20:41:21 [Preview] No. 11101 del
OPHELIA CONFIRMED HURRICANE

Intensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly.  Dvorak
estimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much
higher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind
estimates. Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak
classifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but
since that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery.
However, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the
convective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so
it wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly.
In an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has
been increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it
should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is
higher than normal.

The hurricane is moving slowly toward the east and the initial
motion estimate is 090/3 kt. The hurricane is embedded within weak
steering flow, and only a slow northeastward drift is expected for
the next 24 h. After that time, an approaching deep-layer trough
should force Ophelia to accelerate toward the northeast. All of the
deterministic models are in fairly good agreement on the speed and
track of Ophelia, however the various model ensembles suggest that
the uncertainty is much higher, especially regarding the forward
speed of Ophelia beyond 48 h. The official track forecast favors
the deterministic model solutions, in part to maintain continuity
with the previous advisory. The track forecast is therefore close
to the multi-model consensus, but much faster than the various
ensemble mean aids.

Since it isn't clear exactly how strong Ophelia is, the intensity
forecast is low confidence. All of the intensity guidance indicates
that strengthening is likely for the next 24 to 36 hours, however
the near stationary motion of the hurricane could induce some
upwelling and limit the extent to which the hurricane may
strengthen. Around 72 hours, the shear should begin to increase
substantially as Ophelia begins to interact with the approaching
trough, and extratropical transition will likely begin, accompanied
by a broadening of the wind field and a gradual decrease of the
maximum winds. The global models indicate that this process will
complete by 96 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher
than the previous forecast, but lies on the lower end of the
intensity guidance for the first 72 h. It is near the consensus
aids thereafter.


Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 15:44:01 [Preview] No. 11127 del
>>11101
So, we'll see tomorrow?


Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 16:02:56 [Preview] No. 11128 del
>>11099
>>11098
nooice
t. babie lato

>>11101
I think I'm gonna get hit by that


Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 16:32:56 [Preview] No. 11129 del
Forecast track keeps getting moved further west
but right now it seems that Ophelia will hit Ireland as a hurricane, or at least at hurricane force (if convection is killed by then already – just a technical thing, there's barely any difference in how it would look like from the ground). But hurricane wind speeds are nothing extraordinary for British isles, winter storms of similar intensity occur yearly – it's just a completely different type of a storm.

Ophelia's satellite presentation consists of a distinct eye in
infrared imagery surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of -50C to -70C.
The initial intensity of 80 kt is based on a blend of the latest
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, which range from 77 to
95 kt. Little change in intensity is expected during the next 48
hours, as Ophelia will remain over SSTs of 25-26C and in a low
to moderate shear environment. After that time, the cyclone should
begin extratropical transition as it interacts with a potent
mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the north Atlantic. This
baroclinic interaction should maintain Ophelia at hurricane
intensity through 96 hours, with slow weakening expected after that
time as the extratropical cyclone occludes.

Ophelia has moved little since the last advisory, with the cyclone
currently situated south of the mid-latitude westerlies. The
initial motion estimate is a slow north-northeastward drift at
around 2 kt. A steadier northeastward motion should begin by 12 h
when the aforementioned upper-level trough begins to exert influence
on Ophelia's motion. An east-northeastward acceleration is expected
at 24 through 48 h, followed by a turn back to the northeast and
north-northeast at days 3 through 5 as Ophelia interacts with the
southern portion of the trough. Through the first 48 hours, the new
NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope. Later in the forecast period,
there remains a fair bit of east/west spread in the track of Ophelia
near Ireland and the United Kingdom, which isn't usual at these time
ranges. The NHC forecast at these times is similar to the previous
one and lies on the right side of the deterministic guidance
envelope but is near the middle of the ECMWF, UKMET and GEFS
ensemble members. Regardless of the exact track, post-tropical
Ophelia is likely to bring some impacts to Ireland and the United
Kingdom as a powerful extratropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days.

While the track guidance keeps the center of Ophelia east of the
Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the
eastern Azores later today or tonight because of the expected
increase in the size of the tropical-storm-force winds in the
northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts. Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days. For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
issued by the Met Office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 30.5N 35.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 30.9N 34.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 31.6N 33.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 32.7N 30.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 34.4N 27.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 40.9N 18.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 51.0N 12.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 17/1200Z 60.5N 5.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 16:33:22 [Preview] No. 11130 del
>>11128
How come?


Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 16:34:52 [Preview] No. 11131 del
>>11128
commentary on semantic shift:
in Slovene it's polětje because lěto ended up meaning "year" instead, similar development to how неделя means "week" and not "Sunday" in Russian.


Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 21:45:55 [Preview] No. 11142 del
>>11131
intaresting
in polish, "lato" is "summer" but "lata" is "years", and singular "year" is "rok"
who the hell came up with that shit


Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 21:59:15 [Preview] No. 11143 del
>>11142
>"lato" is "summer" but "lata" is "years"

Russian has old-style/poetic form "leta" for "years", although it isn't used much.


Bernd 10/12/2017 (Thu) 22:02:10 [Preview] No. 11144 del
>>11130
ok I checked weather forecast again, it won't be going through poland directly, but we will feel the effects of this hurricane anyway


Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 17:03:19 [Preview] No. 11156 del
>>11129
Any updates?
Also what kind of impact can be expected on the continent? Liek he >>11144 said.


Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 17:07:33 [Preview] No. 11157 del
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>>11156
Okay here we go.

Ophelia apparently ate some dry air, but she's going at cat 2. Wind intensity forecast and estimates are now higher – perhaps they were underestimated before. It definitely looks like a hurricane-force landfall on Ireland, early Monday. Meanwhile tomorrow the storm will pass the Azores.

The eye of Ophelia has become a bit more apparent in visible and
infrared imagery during the past couple of hours, but the cloud tops
around the eye have also warmed recently. The initial intensity is
set to 85 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective
Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers. The hurricane will remain in an
environment of marginal SSTs and light to moderate shear for the
next day or so, which suggests little change in intensity during
that time. By 36 hours, the shear will begin to increase as a
powerful upper-level trough approaches from the west, but Ophelia
should remain at hurricane force during extratropical transition as
it undergoes a favorable interaction with the aforementioned trough
and takes on a warm seclusion structure. The transition process
is expected to be complete by 72 hours, and post-tropical Ophelia
should gradually weaken as the cyclone occludes beneath the upper
trough. The low-level circulation of Ophelia is expected to
dissipate over Scandinavia by day 5.

The initial motion estimate is 060/10. The track forecast reasoning
remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Ophelia should move
east-northeastward ahead of the approaching upper-level trough with
a steady increase in forward speed through the next 24 hours. The
hurricane should turn northeastward by 48 hours followed by a
north-northeastward motion at days 3 and 4. The track model guidance
is in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are some
differences in forward speed beyond 48 hours. The new NHC track
is similar to the previous one and lies between the latest TVCA
multi-model consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid through
the forecast period. On this track, the center of Ophelia is
expected to move southeast of the Azores during the next 36 hours
and then move near or over Ireland and the western part of the UK in
3 to 4 days. Given the expected increase in the size of Ophelia's
wind field during extratropical transition, impacts from strong
winds and rain are becoming increasingly likely over portions of the
British Isles regardless of the exact track of the center.

While the NHC track continues to keep the center of Ophelia south
and east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible
throughout the Azores beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due
to an approaching cold front. Any deviation to the left of the
forecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests
in the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather
Forecast and Watch Center.

A 1242 UTC ASCAT-B pass was helpful in analyzing the 34-kt wind
radii around Ophelia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are becoming more likely, along with dangerous marine
conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location
of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should
refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United
Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 31.8N 32.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 32.6N 30.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 34.1N 27.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 36.5N 22.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 40.7N 17.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 51.0N 11.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/1200Z 60.0N 4.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED


Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 17:31:44 [Preview] No. 11158 del
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Analysis from Free University of Berlin's Institute of Meteorology. Ophelia will soon start interacting with that big cold front dragging from the cold-core low designated as Benno; this will steer Ophelia along the front, while allowing for smooth transition from a warm-core system into a cold-core system without dissipation. Ophelia will thus merge into the mid-latitude system of cold-core systems generated as eddies by the jet stream; strengthening whichever cyclone it merges into in the process.

The model Arpege (gifs generated by Meteociel) forecasts landfall at about 110 km/h and central pressure below 955 mbar. Hurricane force is above 120 km/h. But right before approaching Ireland wind intensity is even above the upper end of the scale used (140 km/h) so if Ophelia moves a bit faster this could count as a hurricane landfall.


Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 19:24:37 [Preview] No. 11159 del
>>11157
So they don't have much to say about how will it change the weather on the continent itself for now.


Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 19:33:37 [Preview] No. 11160 del
>>11159
Tropical storms are relatively small systems. Jet stream has a much greater effect on weather in Europe.

There's two things that it will certainly cause: 1) more saharan wind blown towards Europe, 2) some rain bands reaching Portugal ending drought. Otherwise I don't think it will affect weather development much.


Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 19:45:09 [Preview] No. 11162 del
>>11160
Has anything to do with this nice warm weather we have here?
I see people with puffed coats and scarf while I'm sweating in a t-shirt kek.


Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 19:49:09 [Preview] No. 11163 del
>>11162
Nod really; that's a jet stream feature, see >>11095. But this certainly helps that Ophelia can get pulled in like this.


Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 23:03:39 [Preview] No. 11165 del
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Ophelia's eye has become better defined over the past 6 hours.
Although cloud tops near the inner core of the hurricane are warmer
than 24 hours ago, a ring of -50 deg C or colder cloud tops still
surrounds the eye. Dvorak current intensity estimates have not
changed substantially, and a blend of objective and subjective
classifications still supports an initial intensity of 85 kt.

Little change in strength is expected while Ophelia remains a
hurricane, since the relatively cool SSTs along the hurricane's path
will likely be offset by low shear and cold upper-level temperatures
for the next 36 h. Extratropical transition will likely begin
shortly after that time, as Ophelia begins to interact with a large
upper-level trough approaching from the west. The dynamical
guidance suggests that Ophelia will deepen in response to the
trough, and although the forecast does not explicitly show it, I can
not rule out that Ophelia will briefly intensify as it undergoes
extratropical transition. By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to
occlude and begin weakening, though the expansion of the wind field
will result in impacts over portions of the British Isles,
regardless of its exact location or strength. By 96 hours,
continued weakening and interaction with land will likely cause the
surface circulation to become ill-defined, and dissipation is
expected shortly thereafter.

Ophelia is beginning to accelerate toward the east-northeast and the
initial motion estimate is 060/11 kt. Very little change has been
made to the official track forecast. Ophelia is still expected to
continue picking up speed on an east-northeast heading while passing
south of the Azores during the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 hours,
interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough will cause
Ophelia to turn toward the northeast and approach Ireland and the
western UK in about 72 h. The track guidance is tightly clustered,
especially through 72 h, and the new NHC track forecast is close to
the various multi-model consensus aids. Although the center of
Ophelia is not expected to reach Ireland or the UK until about day
3, wind and rain effects will arrive well in advance of the cyclone
center. Individuals in those locations should consult products from
their local meteorological service for more information on local
impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due to an approaching cold
front. Any deviation to the left of Ophelia's forecast track could
bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests in the Azores should
refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch
Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 32.3N 31.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 33.4N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 35.2N 25.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 38.2N 20.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 43.1N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 53.2N 10.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/1800Z 60.5N 2.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED


Bernd 10/13/2017 (Fri) 23:18:44 [Preview] No. 11166 del
hurricanes named Ophelia have a habit of reaching Europe
>September 22, 2005 – Former Hurricane Ophelia moved across the Faroe Islands.[24]
>October 6, 2011 – The remnants of Hurricane Ophelia combined with a cold front to produce 105 km/h (65 mph) winds and snowfall in Scotland.[88]


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 09:30:54 [Preview] No. 11180 del
>>11163
Oh yeah. I forgot.

>>11166
Why don't they just name it something else? Problem solved.

>>11165
Looks good.


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 09:34:07 [Preview] No. 11181 del
>>11166
>>11180
I thought they weren't supposed to repeat names for hurricanes tbh...is it different because it wasn't classified a hurricane when it made land fall?


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 09:49:23 [Preview] No. 11182 del
>>11181
Well:
http://geology.com/hurricanes/hurricane-names.shtml
>hurricanes are not given names, tropical storms are given names, and they retain their name if they develop into a hurricane.
>For each year a list of 21 names, each starting with a different letter of the alphabet, was developed and arranged in alphabetical order (names beginning with the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z were not used). The first tropical storm of the year was given the name beginning with the letter "A," the second with the letter "B" and so on through the alphabet. During even-numbered years, men's names were given to the odd-numbered storms and during odd-numbered years, women's names were given to odd-numbered storms (see the table for recent name lists).
>The only change that is made to the list of Atlantic hurricane names is the occasional retirement of a name. This is done when a hurricane causes so much death and destruction that reuse of the same name would be insensitive to the people who suffered losses.


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 16:15:52 [Preview] No. 11185 del
>>11181
They use the same list every 6 years and only replace names if a hurricane causes a shoah.


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 16:19:26 [Preview] No. 11186 del
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Passing Azores on the east right now. Transition to extratropical is still expected to be smooth and not cause dissipation.

During the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has
improved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct
with a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very
deep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the
Dvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been
oscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,
the initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,
making Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS. Ophelia is a
quite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the
northeastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will
soon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.
Although some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach
the British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane
force winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the
system moved over these Isles.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast
or 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the
southwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large
mid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing
forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track
models are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite
tight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it
is very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the
multi-model ensemble TVCX.

Given that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind
field should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the
British Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive
well in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
after Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight
as a cold front moves through the islands. Interests in the Azores
should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and
Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 34.8N 26.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 36.5N 23.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 40.5N 18.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 46.5N 14.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/1200Z 51.5N 11.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/1200Z 59.0N 6.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 16:24:18 [Preview] No. 11187 del
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Can't seem to get latest Arpege products? Oh well. Ophelia is already interacting with the cold front to the north, this will extend the wind bands to the southeast (the cold front will spin around the hurricane), going towards Portugal. The upper level trough that's generating the cold front is why there'll be a smooth transition – Ophelia will start pumping energy from there.

At least the kr*uts have their daily analysis done.


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 16:26:34 [Preview] No. 11188 del
Also I just noticed Ophelia is now confirmed cat 3. Ebin.

>MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
>MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 16:28:18 [Preview] No. 11189 del
OK it seems Arpege run is being done right now. Will export products when finished.


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 17:01:23 [Preview] No. 11190 del
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>>11189
products


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 17:03:05 [Preview] No. 11191 del
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>>11190
wtf where's pressure field?


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 17:10:25 [Preview] No. 11192 del
>>11188
Noice.

>>11190
>>11191
Next few days will be exxxciting.


Bernd 10/14/2017 (Sat) 19:57:54 [Preview] No. 11195 del
nicely connected to that front


Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 07:27:27 [Preview] No. 11196 del
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Ophelia remains an impressive hurricane in infrared satellite
imagery. The hurricane continues to exhibit a large well-defined
eye within a ring of cold cloud tops. However, the overall cloud
pattern has started to elongate and there has been a slight erosion
of the area of cloud tops over the west and southwest portions of
the circulation as dry air and a frontal boundary encroaches on the
hurricane. Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies
continue to support an intensity of 100 kt. The aforementioned
changes in the cloud pattern and an expansion of the wind field as
noted by an earlier ASCAT overpass suggest that extratropical
transition has begun. The wind field is expect to significantly
expand over the next 12 to 24 hours, which is likely to lead to a
gradual decrease in the maximum winds. Ophelia is forecast to
complete extratropical transition within 24 hours, but it is
expected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday. The
system is forecast to occlude and interact with land, which
should cause a faster rate of weakening in 48 to 72 hours, with
dissipation expected shortly thereafter.

Ophelia is moving northeastward, or 055/24 kt ahead of a
mid-latitude trough moving over the northeastern Atlantic. The
hurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward tonight, then
turn north-northeastward with an additional increase in forward
speed by late Sunday and Sunday night. After the system occludes in
a couple of days, it should begin to slow down. The track guidance
is in good agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is very
close to the previous advisory.

Although the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or
the UK until Monday, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of
the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult
products from their local meteorological service for more
information on local impacts.

Tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores
tonight behind a cold front that has moved through the islands in
the wake of Ophelia. Interests in the Azores should refer to
products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions
of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.
For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts
from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to
products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom
should refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 37.3N 21.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 40.1N 17.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 45.7N 13.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 16/1200Z 51.4N 10.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/0000Z 56.0N 7.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/0000Z 60.0N 2.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED


Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 07:32:41 [Preview] No. 11197 del
(4.32 MB 768x768 tempresult_chf6.gif)
(10.91 MB 768x768 tempresult_cvm9.gif)
Arpege model forecast


Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 17:21:53 [Preview] No. 11206 del
(570.60 KB 720x480 rb-animated.gif)
(1.44 MB 720x480 vis-animated.gif)
(454.24 KB 720x480 wv-animated.gif)
oh well, time for update

Ophelia is slowly getting torn apart but this doesn't mean she's losing power yet. The wind field is spreading from the narrow eyewall, while the system is kept strong by the trough in upper troposphere.

Portugal gon' get some rain finally. Spain can go fuck herself.

After displaying a distinct eye overnight, recent satellite imagery
indicate that the cloud pattern of Ophelia has begun to deteriorate
and the eye is no longer apparent. The deep convection is also
weakening fast and consequently, Dvorak numbers have begun to
decrease while analysts are trying to lower them as much as the
technique allows. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 80
kt. Given the cold waters of about 20 deg C, and the strong shear,
Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical
cyclone later today.

Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the
north-northeast or 025 degrees at 33 kt, well embedded within the
fast flow ahead of a large trough. This pattern is expected to
persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated before
dissipation. Guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement
and most of the models bring a weakened post-tropical Ophelia to the
southern coast of Ireland Monday morning (AST or Miami time).
Thereafter, the cyclone will continue over northern Great Britain
until dissipation.

Strong winds and rains associated with Post-Tropical Ophelia will
arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those
locations should consult products from their local meteorological
service for more information on local impacts.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 41.6N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 46.0N 13.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/1200Z 51.5N 9.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/0000Z 57.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1200Z 60.5N 1.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED


Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 17:24:14 [Preview] No. 11207 del
(5.58 MB 768x768 tempresult_kub6.gif)
(2.44 MB 768x768 tempresult_qzn5.gif)
Landfall around 13:00 tomorrow.


Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 17:28:38 [Preview] No. 11208 del
(210.96 KB 1024x727 Analyse_20171015.gif)
forgot kr*uts' analysis for last night


Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 17:44:00 [Preview] No. 11209 del
>>11208
>forgot
How very negligent of you.


Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 17:50:05 [Preview] No. 11210 del
>>11206
>Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical
cyclone later today.
Sad! At least potatos are safe.


Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 18:48:31 [Preview] No. 11212 del


Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 20:29:03 [Preview] No. 11216 del
>>11213
I thought grabbing all the alcohol is just a boring weekday activity on the Emerald Island.


Bernd 10/15/2017 (Sun) 22:38:47 [Preview] No. 11224 del
Ophelia's cloud structure is declining rapidly, and microwave and
shortwave IR imagery indicate that the low-level and mid-level
centers are becoming separated. However, some deep convection is
still present near Ophelia's center, and an SSMIS pass from 1827 UTC
indicated that the hurricane still has an inner core that is
separated from a front to the north and west. The estimated maximum
winds have been decreased slightly to 75 kt given the overall decay
of the cloud structure. However, the cyclone's favorable position
relative to an upper-level jet streak is likely contributing to
deepening of the low as the wind field expands substantially. Only
a slight decrease in the maximum winds is therefore expected before
the post-tropical cyclone reaches Ireland. After that time,
interaction with land while the cyclone occludes should cause it to
weaken more rapidly. Around 48 h, the cyclone's circulation is
likely to become ill-defined and dissipate near the western coast of
Scandinavia.

Ophelia has continued to move toward the north-northeast, and the
initial motion estimate remains 025/33 kt. There has been no change
to the track forecast reasoning since Ophelia is already embedded
within the flow associated with a large mid-latitude trough. This
should keep Ophelia on a north-northeast heading as it passes over
Ireland and the UK on Monday. The dynamical guidance remains in
very good agreement on the track of Ophelia, and very little change
has been made to the track forecast.

Since Ophelia will be post-tropical as it approaches Ireland and the
UK, strong winds and rain will arrive over land areas sooner than
the center. For more information on local impacts, consult products
from local meteorological services in Ireland and the United Kingdom
for more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of
these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For
more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from
post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products
issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should
refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 44.6N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 49.2N 11.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 16/1800Z 54.3N 7.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED


Still considered a tropical system. But it looks more like a knot on a cold front than anything else. Current location: halfway between Galicia and Ireland. Models predict extratropical strengthening before landfall.

I will try to export a longer video from this source, including entire path within area of view, once it's over.


Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 06:51:41 [Preview] No. 11229 del
Almost there.

Within just the past six hours, the last bit of deep convection
near Ophelia's center has been sheared off well to the north, and
the cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure.
Ophelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an
attached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a
cold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal. The
powerful cyclone continues to produce hurricane-force winds, with
recent ASCAT data showing wind vectors as high as 70 kt to the east
of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains
75 kt to account for undersampling. The occluded low is forecast to
gradually fill and weaken during the next couple of days, and it is
likely to dissipate near the western coast of Norway by 48 hours.
Despite the expected weakening, the post-tropical cyclone is still
likely to bring hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, to
portions of western Ireland on Monday.

Ophelia has accelerated and retrograded slightly during the past
6-12 hours during the occlusion process, and the long-term motion
estimate is northward, or 010/38 kt. Now that occlusion is
complete, the post-tropical cyclone should resume a north-
northeastward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, within
the next 12 hours. That heading should continue for the ensuing day
or two, bringing the center of the cyclone near the western coast of
Ireland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night.
The dynamical track models remain in good agreement on this
scenario, and the updated NHC forecast is not too different from
the previous one.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
now that Ophelia has become post-tropical. Local forecasts,
warnings, and other communications regarding the post-tropical
cyclone that are pertinent to Ireland and the United Kingdom will
continue to be available from Met Eireann and the UK Met Office.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United
Kingdom Monday and Monday night. Strong winds and heavy rain are
likely in portions of these areas, along with dangerous marine
conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location
of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should
refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the
United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 49.2N 13.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 16/1200Z 53.2N 10.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/0000Z 57.4N 5.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1200Z 61.9N 0.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED


Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 13:45:27 [Preview] No. 11235 del
http://www.severe-weather.eu/news/ophelia-makes-landfall-in-s-ireland-with-storm-to-hurricane-force-winds-update-1200-utc/

>Post-tropical storm Ophelia makes landfall in southern Ireland early this afternoon – peak winds reported so far: 191 km/h at Fastnet lighthouse, the most southerly point in Ireland, likely associated with a sting jet. 155 km/h reported at Roches Point, S Ireland. 120-135 km/h reported so far at other locations along the S coast of Ireland.


Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 15:45:01 [Preview] No. 11238 del
You were a busy-bee I see. Just as Ophelia. Is she now at Ireland?


Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 16:03:03 [Preview] No. 11242 del
(46.90 KB 500x527 WEB_sat_ir_irl.jpg)
>>11238
Yep. The core I think has reached Ulster by now. Satellite pic from Met Ireland.


Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 17:16:37 [Preview] No. 11254 del
>>11249
It's like a second potato famine!


Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 17:32:13 [Preview] No. 11256 del
>>11249
Shit.


Bernd 10/16/2017 (Mon) 20:47:19 [Preview] No. 11260 del
(150.28 KB 1024x1024 25W_161800sair.jpg)
(66.18 KB 1486x901 wp2517.gif)
Meanwhile Lan east of Philippines is expected to violently strengthen before moving northwards towards Japan.


Bernd 10/17/2017 (Tue) 05:22:04 [Preview] No. 11262 del
>>11259
Nice photos. Once I saw similar when some fire got out of hand. Maybe burning the stubble-field went sideways I can't recall now.


Bernd 10/17/2017 (Tue) 15:56:23 [Preview] No. 11272 del
Oh well couldn't export the animation myself but here it is on youtube.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=BPgJfGGD2xM [Embed]
https://youtube.com/watch?v=7BG8PwYYFjc [Embed]


Bernd 10/17/2017 (Tue) 17:13:25 [Preview] No. 11274 del
>>11272
Nice. The trail/skirt sweeping over west Iberia and Bretagne is very nicely observable.


Bernd 10/18/2017 (Wed) 13:34:39 [Preview] No. 11282 del
(235.40 KB 1024x1024 25W_180600sams.jpg)
(62.11 KB 1316x889 wp2517.gif)
GET REKT JAPS


Bernd 10/18/2017 (Wed) 16:34:37 [Preview] No. 11283 del
>>11282
I thought it's LAN. Turned out it's Lan. What's 25W?


Bernd 10/18/2017 (Wed) 16:59:01 [Preview] No. 11284 del
>>11283
Tropical waves are given a number-letter designation as soon as they're identified, before they start developing tropical storm characteristics. This designation is used for tracking and are given as a reference number if a wave develops into a cyclone.
The letter is for basin, W stands for Western Pacific. I don't know all the letters and how numbers work (I just know some basins only use high numbers over 90 for some reason).


Bernd 10/18/2017 (Wed) 17:49:09 [Preview] No. 11286 del
>>11284
>I don't know all the letters and how numbers work
Probably some site has an explanation and table for that. Thanks.


Bernd 10/19/2017 (Thu) 17:57:46 [Preview] No. 11301 del
(127.41 KB 1024x1024 25W_191200sair.jpg)
(68.54 KB 1383x841 wp2517.gif)
Lan isn't strengthening and is still cat 1.
The track looks fun though.


Bernd 10/20/2017 (Fri) 11:22:48 [Preview] No. 11312 del
(242.92 KB 1024x1024 25W_200600sams.jpg)
(64.67 KB 1417x856 wp2517.gif)
(2.86 MB 1054x704 tcmovieFinal.gif)
(1.64 MB 1054x704 tcmovieFinal2.gif)
>>11287
Holy fuck that's a huge eye.


Bernd 10/20/2017 (Fri) 15:54:39 [Preview] No. 11317 del
>>11312
So basically all of Japan will get a refreshing shower.


Bernd 10/21/2017 (Sat) 13:47:57 [Preview] No. 11329 del
(280.64 KB 1024x1024 25W_210600sams.jpg)
(64.83 KB 1442x920 wp2517.gif)
>>11317
Well it looks like it finally strengthened.


Bernd 10/21/2017 (Sat) 13:51:09 [Preview] No. 11330 del
[info]WDPN32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210553Z
89GHZ AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 50NM EYE
FEATURE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS INDICATING THE START OF A WEAKENING
TREND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EVIDENT EYE FEATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD EXHAUST INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES CURRENTLY OVER JAPAN. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE
STILL VERY WARM NEAR 29 CELSIUS, HOWEVER, STY 25W HAS TRACKED INTO
AN AREA OF SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. CURRENTLY STY
25W IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 25W WILL KEEP TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
IS DEVELOPING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN EXERTING INFLUENCE OVER THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS PERPETUATING THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, VERTICAL WIND WILL RISE
SUBSTANTIALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS INTERACTING
WITH THE BAROCLINIC REGION. STY 25W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 AS A FAIRLY
LARGE AND INTENSE SYSTEM. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND
FAR FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER REACHING WELL INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN
DESPITE TAKING A TRACK VERY CLOSE TO YOKOSUKA NAVAL STATION AND
SKIRTING THE EASTERN EDGE OF HONSHU. STY 25W WILL BEGIN TO EXHIBIT
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS SOMETIME AFTER TAU 96 COMPLETING ETT BY TAU
48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TRACK
AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM, THUS LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN[/info]


Bernd 10/21/2017 (Sat) 13:51:43 [Preview] No. 11331 del
>>11330
>[info]
well fuck I am retarded


Bernd 10/21/2017 (Sat) 14:47:23 [Preview] No. 11338 del
>>11329
That's seriously a big eye. Bigger than some islands there.

>it looks like it finally strengthened
>>11330
>START OF A WEAKENING TREND
Now which is it?

>>11331
>I am retarded
We all had our suspicions.


Bernd 10/21/2017 (Sat) 19:51:21 [Preview] No. 11356 del
>>11338
Well. The question is how strong the system is once it moves over colder waters, out of the tropics. Weakening trend from cat 4 or from cat 2 means the difference between a decent storm and barely a shower by the time it reaches Japan.


Bernd 10/22/2017 (Sun) 08:08:33 [Preview] No. 11361 del
(265.57 KB 1024x1024 25W_220600sams.jpg)
(65.06 KB 1666x903 wp2517.gif)
WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (LAN) WARNING NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 25W (LAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS STREAMING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH ADVECTION
OF COOLER, DRIER AIR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS TAPPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
OVER JAPAN, HOWEVER, INCREASING PRESSURE IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. A 220107Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 (115 KNOTS) TO T7.0 (140
KNOTS). TY 25W IS ACCELERATING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THIS FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THE 211237Z ASCAT IMAGE (SUPPORTS UNUSUALLY
SMALL 50- AND 64-KNOT WIND RADII).
B. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EYE WOBBLE,
HOWEVER, TY 25W IS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING POLEWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN STABLE AND REMARKABLY TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY A 100-NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS OVER THE KANTO
PLAIN REGION NEAR TAU 24. TY LAN WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASED INTERACTION WITH LAND AND THE STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS WELL AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM
WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
IT QUICKLY GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD. DESPITE THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, TY
25W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH WINDS THROUGH TAU 24.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS DUE TO
THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM, AND PROXIMITY OF COLD-SURGE WINDS
AND GRADIENT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY
SITUATED OVER JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN


Bernd 10/22/2017 (Sun) 08:10:20 [Preview] No. 11362 del
and a lil bit on the storm that passed Ireland yesterday
http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/windstorm-brian-hits-ireland-the-uk-update/


Bernd 10/22/2017 (Sun) 19:08:59 [Preview] No. 11379 del
(140.41 KB 1024x1024 25W_221200sair.jpg)
japs getting slapped
https://www.rt.com/news/407465-typhoon-lan-hits-japan/

looking at some CAPE models (basically estimate of available convective energy in the atmosphere) Lan is no longer active for the last day - explaining the gradual weakening. But on the other hand, Lan is now riding a cold front extending down from Sea of Okhotsk. Subsequent strengthening into a windstorm is possible over Bering Sea, as happened with Nuri in November 2014, on a similar track - a cat 5 south of Japan, that turned into a huge 920 mbar cold core low over the Aleutians with hurricane-force winds (130 km/h), subsequently bringing a cold wave down Canada and US.


Bernd 10/22/2017 (Sun) 19:54:36 [Preview] No. 11387 del
(60.61 KB 1517x919 wp2517.gif)
(140.61 KB 1024x1024 25W_221800sair.jpg)
and I guess Lan's pretty much dead already. Sad!


Bernd 10/23/2017 (Mon) 06:33:28 [Preview] No. 11394 del
All day long.

>>11387
Well, that's that. Happening anything interesting elsewhere?


Bernd 10/23/2017 (Mon) 18:50:54 [Preview] No. 11413 del
>>11394
well Izola got flooded last night, and a university building burned down (presumably power got shorted because of water)
a storm cloud collapsed and dropped 87mm of rain almost instantly
http://www.24ur.com/novice/slovenija/voda-zalila-vrtce-sole-stanovanja-zaradi-neurja-v-izoli-danes-nekaj-tezav-v-vrtcih.html
(warning autoplay)


Bernd 10/23/2017 (Mon) 19:37:16 [Preview] No. 11414 del
>>11413
Apokalipicno.


Bernd 10/28/2017 (Sat) 09:06:14 [Preview] No. 11496 del
(243.09 KB 1024x1024 27W_280600sams.jpg)
(71.98 KB 1809x962 wp2717.gif)
Round 2 for Japan. This one is smaller but unlike Lan it isn't weakening yet, there's still enough energy to the east.


Bernd 10/29/2017 (Sun) 09:25:49 [Preview] No. 11535 del
Pretty fucking windy here rn.


Bernd 10/29/2017 (Sun) 09:41:32 [Preview] No. 11536 del
>>11535
We have strong winds. Today or tomorrow we'll have gusts up to 140 km/h at some places.


Bernd 10/29/2017 (Sun) 16:48:22 [Preview] No. 11551 del
(217.82 KB 1024x727 Analyse_20171029.gif)
(108.21 KB 1280x910 Prognose_20171029.gif)
FU Berlin shows interesting structure.
First is last night analysis, second is prognosis for tonight.


Bernd 10/29/2017 (Sun) 17:40:08 [Preview] No. 11554 del
>>11551
I took a stroll. It blows.


Bernd 11/02/2017 (Thu) 20:05:13 [Preview] No. 11639 del
(684.16 KB 1024x1024 28W_021800sair.jpg)
(46.05 KB 1254x745 wp2817.gif)


Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 13:52:13 [Preview] No. 11666 del
(1.10 MB 1024x1024 28W_030600sams.jpg)
>>11639
pretty nice


Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 16:35:48 [Preview] No. 11669 del
>>11666
When does such things count as hurricanes again?


Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 16:57:00 [Preview] No. 11672 del
>>11669
When it's in US area (so, Northern Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, Central Pacific)
In Western Pacific it's called Typhoons (which is the same really) (大風, daai⁶ fung¹ in Cantonese), in other basins it's just a cyclone with appropriate intensifier.
Why? Because fuck you.


Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 17:17:24 [Preview] No. 11675 del
>>11672
So when they start calling those typhoons?


Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 17:21:06 [Preview] No. 11676 del
>>11675
At windspeeds of 64 knots (118 km/h). The cutoff is exactly the same as for hurricanes.


Bernd 11/03/2017 (Fri) 17:26:22 [Preview] No. 11678 del
>>11676
So today it reached this status.


Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 00:39:16 [Preview] No. 11686 del
(670.86 KB 1024x1024 28W_031800sair.jpg)
(38.00 KB 1218x695 wp2817.gif)


Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 08:53:29 [Preview] No. 11690 del
nice
https://youtube.com/watch?v=RlvzRUM3n3s [Embed]


Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 08:59:03 [Preview] No. 11692 del
>>11690
Why have they left their bikes outside just that?


Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 09:00:45 [Preview] No. 11694 del
>>11692
Oh. 10:00. Now I know.


Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 10:08:17 [Preview] No. 11696 del
>>11695
You mean it's a good time to invest in umbrellas, raincoats and rubber boots?


Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 11:56:05 [Preview] No. 11697 del
>>11696
I think it's a good time to start moving stuff out of basement.


Bernd 11/04/2017 (Sat) 14:20:52 [Preview] No. 11698 del
>>11697
Well then it's a good time to invest in submersible pump.


Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 09:45:15 [Preview] No. 11708 del
(84.90 KB 900x646 BI_First.jpg)
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We have a really nice example of a Genoa low developing.

When a cold front hits the Alps from the west, the temperature and pressure field stack so that they're perpendicular to each other. The lower pressure behind the cold front leads an east-west pressure gradient, while there is also temperature gradient from the warmer sea to the colder inlands. The misalignment factor (mathematically a cross product between the gradients of pressure and density fields, with density inversely correlated to temperautre) is called baroclinity. Typically, the two fields are relatively well aligned. but next to mountain barriers and warm seas (a great example being exactly the Ligurian sea)

So, what happens then? Pressure fields mean that in the south, the air is rising because of high temperature, while in the west, there's cold air rushing into the cyclone from elsewhere. Summed together, this means that the cold air is rushing in counter-clockwise from northwest, while cold air is retreating and rising counter-clockwise on the eastern side. This initiates the rotation, as well as deepens the cyclone, as warm air rises. The cold air that rushes in develops a secondary cold front, while the warm air moving away develops an area of convection along a secondary warm front. A small eddy cyclone develops to the south of Provence, in Ligurian sea, which usually drops huge amounts of rain the the following day or two.


Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 09:52:41 [Preview] No. 11710 del
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>>11708
3rd pic?


Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 09:53:26 [Preview] No. 11711 del
(299.13 KB 845x615 sat24.com.webm)
All right, so this was theory. Now let's look at the satellite imagery.


Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 10:05:18 [Preview] No. 11712 del
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What is interesting with this situation however is that after the Genoa low develops, there's a high-level cold core (a piece of cold air in upper troposphere) that moves over it. This strengthens the system pressure-wise, as well as adding more vertical temperature gradient that makes convection stronger. In other words, the Genoa low can continue developing convectively, as a tropical storm would. A small cyclone is expected to develop and spin out. I guess one could call it a subtropical cyclone (a warm-core low developed out of a non-tropical disturbance), but on the other hand, this is just a secondary feature that develops under a high-level cold core.

Pictures: prognosis for temperature and height of 500mbar level – half of the atmospheric collumn (cold air = denser, so where there is cold air there will be troughs / depressions at that level to maintain much smaller pressure differences at ground level). First pic is about now (prognosis from midnight + 12 hours), second pic is in 24 hours. As you can see, the trough that is driving the cold front right now will break, and there will be an intrusion of cold air sitting above western Mediterranean.


Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 10:22:17 [Preview] No. 11713 del
(4.47 MB 768x768 tempresult_dow9.gif)
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So, what do arpege models say? That there should be a small active warm core cyclone detached from the cold and warm fronts developing under this big mass of cold air. Far from a hurricane, but it functions the same.

Gifs are wind field, pressure field, cloud cover and precipitation prognoses (not necessarily in this order).


Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 10:31:37 [Preview] No. 11714 del
>>11708
>The lower pressure behind the cold front
this should be higher pressure, of course


Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 11:05:29 [Preview] No. 11715 del
>>11708
>he cold air is rushing in counter-clockwise from northwest, while cold air is retreating and rising counter-clockwise on the eastern side
The second cold air which is retreating and rising shouldn't be warm air?


Bernd 11/05/2017 (Sun) 22:37:09 [Preview] No. 11716 del
>>11715
correct


Bernd 11/06/2017 (Mon) 06:52:09 [Preview] No. 11719 del
(8.49 MB 768x768 tempresult_rtb4.gif)
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Arpege no longer predicts an active warm core. Doesn't mean much for weather situation, but it means satellite imagery will be duller.


Bernd 11/06/2017 (Mon) 19:46:38 [Preview] No. 11741 del
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Fug! I generated this but haven't posted as I was busy seriously discussing heraldry.


Bernd 11/06/2017 (Mon) 20:31:24 [Preview] No. 11744 del
>>11741
Looks pretty good.


Bernd 11/07/2017 (Tue) 18:02:37 [Preview] No. 11757 del
(478.14 KB 845x615 sat24.com.webm)


Bernd 11/07/2017 (Tue) 18:03:10 [Preview] No. 11758 del
I forgot to make one in the morning so nightly development is missing


Bernd 11/07/2017 (Tue) 18:03:57 [Preview] No. 11759 del
>>11757
Wow. That's kinda perfect.


Bernd 11/07/2017 (Tue) 18:17:38 [Preview] No. 11760 del
>>11759
I'll try to make a longer vid of entire development, I just need to find out why my script can only retrieve imagery less than a day old.
Archives are here.
http://www2.sat24.com/history.aspx?culture=en-gb


Bernd 11/12/2017 (Sun) 18:00:02 [Preview] No. 11853 del
OH SHIT NIGGA

I see another warm core in ECMWF forecast. Again an embedded feature on a high-level mass of cold air, but this one it seems pretty active.

A cold front passes the Alps but unlike last week it doesn't generate a strong persistent cold-core cyclone in Ligurian Sea. The low-pressure area moves further southeast, and once it passes Calabria and Sicily it starts strengthening on warm seas under a mass of very cold air. The system moves back into Tyrrhenian sea, and it generates a strong pressure gradient and wind field near the centre, and spiral rainbands. From there it moves southwards, and if it passes between Tunisia and Sicily it should start steering eastwards, across Malta and then towards Greece. The ECMWF forecast culminates in it dropping around 125mm rain over Crete, weakening in the process, but if it survives, the Eastern Mediterranean is even warmer and it might strengthen again towards Levant or Egypt.

Pics:
https://www.windy.com/?2017-11-17-12,35.317,21.984,6,m (scroll time a bit)
ECMWF sea level pressure and baroclinic features in the atmosphere (denoting fronts) around the same time
ECMWF cold core in high level when it starts forming, but you can already see warm air rising in NE sector


Bernd 11/12/2017 (Sun) 18:01:52 [Preview] No. 11854 del
This is a system I will try to monitor closely.

Forecast winds aren't very strong though, far from anything hurricane-force.


Bernd 11/12/2017 (Sun) 23:41:02 [Preview] No. 11859 del
there will be snowfall and burja across the dinaric range tonight


Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 06:08:54 [Preview] No. 11861 del
>>11859
Srsly? Won't remain anyway. Temperatures are still mild here. I see some frost here and there in the mornings tho for a weak now.


Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:07:51 [Preview] No. 11871 del
>>11861
Yep, I got snow'd today. Chaos on the roads since most drivers haven't switched tyres yet, lmao. Even worse, trucks stayed on the road and blamed the road agencies for not taking them out of the traffic, then caused several road blocks when they slipped.
Every fucking time it happens; the met office informs that there will be snow but then everyone acts surprised when it happens.


Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:08:39 [Preview] No. 11872 del
Also, weather happenings sites are monitoring the forecast cyclone in the Mediterranean basin already too.
http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/possible-development-of-dangerous-tropical-like-tlc-cyclone-in-ionian-sea-this-week/


Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:24:04 [Preview] No. 11874 del
>>11871
Here people do the sames. In January.


Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:27:05 [Preview] No. 11875 del
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>>11872
A commentary on why it can develop now while usually this is not possible.

Generally, in autumn when temperature differences on the Mediterranean are high enough for development, there are unfavourable conditions vertically through the atmosphere. There's too strong wind shear (driven by the general difference in temperatures north-south, which manifests as a jet stream slightly further north), which means that upper part of the system gets blown away instead of slowly developing like it can over tropical seas; and also, cold and warm fronts spreading from eddies on the polar front regularly pass the region, those atmospheric waves, despite being less intense than tropical and subtropical cyclones, are much larger and can easily just eat a developing cyclone whole (see satellite pic in >>11160 for some idea on scale difference).

But, there is also a high-pressure area developing over central Europe, this will bring stable weather there, blocking any subpolar weather system from affecting the situation on the Mediterranean. This stabilises the atmosphere over the Mediterranean allowing the cyclone to form and thrive, for as long as subpolar weather systems are blocked.


Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:31:27 [Preview] No. 11876 del
And the burja wind situation.


Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 18:42:08 [Preview] No. 11877 del
(6.82 MB 768x768 tempresult_dob6.gif)
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(13.43 MB 768x768 tempresult_gqf5.gif)
Arpege model prognosis, towards the end the system starts developing some proper structure around the core.


Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 19:11:34 [Preview] No. 11881 del
(4.57 MB 768x768 tempresult_wyb1.gif)
>>11877
wait one gif is missing


Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 19:36:25 [Preview] No. 11882 del
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>>11879
Apokalipicno.

"We prepared for the winter but haven't count on snow."


Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 20:32:26 [Preview] No. 11883 del
>>11877
Where are the refugees boats when Poseidon strikes for once.


Bernd 11/13/2017 (Mon) 20:37:52 [Preview] No. 11884 del
>>11883
Wouldn't work, internationalist ships pick up already sinking """"refugee"""" boats right in front of Libyan coast
https://youtube.com/watch?v=wsaituMNS3E [Embed]


Bernd 11/14/2017 (Tue) 00:17:02 [Preview] No. 11886 del
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oh boy, it even shows up on NOAA's hurricane formation probability global map
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/index.html


Bernd 11/14/2017 (Tue) 08:43:31 [Preview] No. 11890 del
severe-weather.eu is giving tornado warning for Apulia today, models are unclear on how the system will develop (I think it goes slightly more westwards and smashes into Tunisia before developing shape on latest runs)


Bernd 11/14/2017 (Tue) 15:38:31 [Preview] No. 11892 del
Alert level decreased. In last model run the system only starts developing next to Calabria and is likely to go inland over Italy instead of strengthening towards Greece.


Bernd 11/14/2017 (Tue) 17:32:20 [Preview] No. 11895 del
>>11891
>1st webm
Flying carpet.

>>11892
It's God's way to express he's not impressed by the pope.

>>11893
God's removing kebab.


Bernd 11/14/2017 (Tue) 21:42:26 [Preview] No. 11901 del
(5.57 MB 768x768 tempresult_ajt2.gif)
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Oh shit our bad boy is back! And if this model is to be trusted, this is going to hurricane force.


Theme song Bernd 11/15/2017 (Wed) 06:26:23 [Preview] No. 11908 del
https://youtube.com/watch?v=6yP1tcy9a10 [Embed]


Bernd 11/15/2017 (Wed) 16:07:11 [Preview] No. 11913 del
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Models predict landfall further north, and more northerly path also means colder seas and thus lower intensity.


Bernd 11/15/2017 (Wed) 17:06:22 [Preview] No. 11916 del
>>11911
Holy Cheese. Good thing the whole Balkans is there shields us from such. At least they're good for something.


Bernd 11/15/2017 (Wed) 19:22:22 [Preview] No. 11919 del
(11.00 MB 768x768 tempresult_dxa3.gif)
(2.84 MB 768x768 tempresult_ply2.gif)
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next run of the model


Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 07:47:06 [Preview] No. 11935 del
(4.00 MB 768x768 tempresult_kev1.gif)
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new model products


Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 13:58:00 [Preview] No. 11936 del
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new model run


Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 17:03:50 [Preview] No. 11938 del
>>11937
Grease should have payed her denbts.


Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 19:15:35 [Preview] No. 11942 del
(3.33 MB 768x768 tempresult_bds1.gif)
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go home model you're drunk

that shit predicts 975 mbar at landfall and up to 167km/h sustained winds which would be cat 2


Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 19:16:34 [Preview] No. 11943 del
>>11937
They say these type of cyclones are infrequent and they gave an example from 2014. How infrequent are they?


Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 19:17:52 [Preview] No. 11944 del
>>11943
I followed the 2014 and 2015 case, and there was one previous in 2011. That's all in the last decade.


Bernd 11/16/2017 (Thu) 23:23:10 [Preview] No. 11954 del
(1.20 MB 768x768 tempresult_cho9.gif)
(3.29 MB 768x768 tempresult_kqb9.gif)
(2.68 MB 768x768 tempresult_lxt9.gif)
(6.84 MB 768x768 tempresult_pel1.gif)
latest run


Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 06:15:14 [Preview] No. 11955 del
>>11954
It'll move SE, away from Italy and the Adria? How come?


Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 06:48:32 [Preview] No. 11957 del
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>>11955
Jet stream eventually steers it away, before the sharp turn the system is pretty much (well it's sitting in a mass of cold air at high altitudes), but then upper atmosphere winds start pushing it southeastwards.


Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 06:53:55 [Preview] No. 11958 del
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>>11957
The latest model prognosis again has a less sharp turn though.


Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 15:06:23 [Preview] No.11962 del
(487.16 KB 845x615 sat24.com.webm)
epik


Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 15:12:26 [Preview] No.11964 del
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model products
if they're to be believed Albania gets the worst

thank you Poseidon


Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 16:48:02 [Preview] No.11967 del
>>11964
Why don't we have a Greek poster? 8ch had that rude fyrom dude at least. I bet he has a laff now.


Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 16:54:11 [Preview] No.11970 del
(1.30 MB 987x740 medicane.png)
Oh come on. I missed the 2016 cyclone?
https://weather.com/news/weather/news/medicane-tropical-storm-mediterranean-sea-31oct2016
I'm ashamed tbh.

Also it would seem it is happening every year lately.


Bernd 11/17/2017 (Fri) 19:10:58 [Preview] No.11978 del
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I always post model products


Bernd 11/18/2017 (Sat) 00:33:02 [Preview] No.11983 del
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oh right I need to post new model products


Bernd 11/18/2017 (Sat) 00:36:42 [Preview] No.11984 del
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IR satellite imagery


Bernd 11/18/2017 (Sat) 17:58:29 [Preview] No.12002 del
moving towards epirus now
satellite pic from earlier


Is disease weather? Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 00:19:14 [Preview] No.12008 del
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/4943288/black-death-patients-are-escaping-hospital-and-refusing-treatment-sparking-fears-it-may-spread/
>HOSPITAL patients suffering from the plague are running away from hospitals because they are scared of needles and aren't used to hospital treatment.
>Malagasy people have also been told not to carry out their traditional burial tradition of Famidihana which involves digging up their dead relatives every seven years.
Does Europe accept refugees from Madagascar?


Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 00:20:01 [Preview] No.12009 del
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kinda blew apart today but got up for final pounding on greece


Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 10:41:08 [Preview] No.12012 del
>>12009
Everything good has an end.


Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 11:20:31 [Preview] No.12013 del
(492.38 KB 845x615 sat24.com.webm)
the end
I don't think there'll be a second surprise in the Aegean or the Euxine


Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 11:23:04 [Preview] No.12014 del
>>12008
Madagascar isn't Muslim so I presume no.


Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 11:38:21 [Preview] No.12016 del
(71.15 KB 720x720 safe_image.php.jpeg)
Leonids are extremely active this year. At least 6 big bolide sightings, I think...
https://youtube.com/watch?v=iDhoHpSJEQE [Embed]
https://vimeo.com/243502557


Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 12:42:42 [Preview] No.12017 del
>>12016
Very nice.
I don't know if that was Leonid, but I seen one month ago, size, light and speed very similar to what was on vimeo link.


Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 13:23:27 [Preview] No.12018 del
>>12017
>>12016
It has been too overcast lately to see anything but such is life on my side of the mountain.
I think I saw one of these a couple of summers ago actually. It alternated between orange and green and either burnt up or went past the treeline when I was driving.
I hoped in my heart of hearts it was a UFO and I would be taken away by MiB.


Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 19:24:53 [Preview] No.12025 del
A satellite view of the eye. Note lack of a well defined eyewall (not enough windspeed so clouds still keep some structure)


Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 19:28:12 [Preview] No.12026 del
ground zero measurements from Aitoliko


Bernd 11/19/2017 (Sun) 20:08:59 [Preview] No.12029 del
(1.69 MB 845x615 out.webm)
long satellite vid



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